India Market Daily — March 25, 2026

Market Snapshot

Market Mood: Bullish — ceasefire hopes in West Asia and a retreat in crude oil prices below $100/barrel fuelled broad-based buying after one of the worst sell-offs of the year.

What Moved Markets

• Ceasefire Hopes in West Asia: Diplomatic signals pointing to a potential de-escalation between the US and Iran buoyed investor sentiment sharply after Monday's rout. The prospect of a ceasefire in the West Asia conflict — which had been the primary trigger for the earlier crash — prompted strong buying across most sectors and reversed much of the recent damage to portfolios.

• Crude Oil Slips Below $100/barrel: Brent crude pulling back below the $100 psychological level was a major catalyst for the recovery. Oil had surged more than 50% since the onset of the US-Iran military conflict, hammering import-heavy economies like India. The retreat in prices eased fears of a spike in India's current account deficit and imported inflation.

• Weekly F&O Expiry Short-Covering: Wednesday's session coincided with the weekly Nifty options expiry, which amplified the intraday move. Traders who had built bearish positions during the earlier crash rushed to cover short positions, adding momentum to the rally. Moneycontrol noted Sensex rising as much as 1,470 points intraday with Shriram Finance, Trent, Titan, and Adani Enterprises among the top gainers during the session.

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Sector Heatmap

• Realty: Strong recovery after being one of the hardest-hit sectors during Monday's crash; benefited from the reversal in risk appetite as geopolitical fears eased.

• Consumer Durables: Rebounded sharply; stocks like Titan were among the top gainers on Nifty as domestic consumption plays attracted buying interest on the dip.

• IT/Technology: HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, and TCS had already outperformed during the crash days as defensives; continued to hold up well in Wednesday's rally.

• Oil & Gas: ONGC and Power Grid Corp, which had held firm during earlier selling, participated in the broader recovery. The fall in crude oil prices also reduced input cost concerns for downstream companies.

• Capital Goods & Metal: Recovered from heavy losses earlier in the week as ceasefire optimism and a calmer macro backdrop supported cyclical stocks.

Top Movers

Gainers

• Shriram Finance: One of the top Nifty gainers on March 25; rebounded strongly after being among the biggest losers during Monday's crash, as financial sector stocks attracted renewed buying on easing macro fears.
• Trent: Rose sharply as consumer discretionary stocks staged a comeback; investors returned to quality domestic consumption names during the weekly expiry short-covering rally.
• Adani Enterprises: Figured among the top gainers on Nifty 50 after having suffered heavy losses on Monday and Tuesday; recovery in sentiment around commodity and infrastructure plays helped the stock bounce.

Losers

Note: Wednesday's session was broadly positive with most stocks participating in the rally. The biggest losers of the earlier days were the prior session's gainers.

• Shriram Finance (Monday/Tuesday): Was among the biggest Nifty 50 losers during the market rout earlier this week before recovering on Wednesday.
• InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo): Hit hard earlier in the week as surging crude oil prices raised aviation fuel cost concerns significantly; among notable losers during the sell-off.
• UltraTech Cement: Was among the Nifty's biggest losers during the prior crash session amid broad-based selling in capital goods and construction-linked names.

FII & DII Activity

• FII (Foreign Institutional Investors): No confirmed net figure for March 25 available from verified sources at time of publication.
• DII (Domestic Institutional Investors): No confirmed net figure for March 25 available from verified sources at time of publication.
• Trend: During the previous crash sessions (March 23–24), DIIs were likely net buyers, acting as a cushion against heavy FII selling triggered by the geopolitical shock — a pattern consistent with recent market behaviour. Wednesday's recovery may have seen continued FII short-covering in derivatives.

Startup & Deal Watch

• Euler Motors: Raised ₹437.5 crore (~$47 million) in a Series E funding round led by Lightrock, along with an additional ₹250 crore in debt. The Hero MotoCorp-backed company makes electric three-wheelers for last-mile commercial logistics and plans to use the proceeds to expand manufacturing capacity, scale its network, and strengthen core operational capabilities.

• Bidso: Raised ₹63 crore in a funding round (as of March 23 reporting).
• LetzRyd: Raised $4 million in funding. The mobility-focused startup was part of the March 23 daily Indian startup funding roundup.

Broader Ecosystem Context: A Nasscom-Zinnov analysis released on March 25 found that Indian tech startups raised $9.1 billion in 2025, marking a 23% year-on-year increase, even as capital became more selective and increasingly concentrated in scalable, commercialisation-ready ventures.

Macro & Policy

• Crude Oil Below $100 — RBI's Complex Policy Challenge: Brent crude slipping below $100/barrel on Wednesday offered some relief, but the broader oil shock context remains challenging for India's central bank. An Emkay Global report published March 24 noted that the RBI faces complex trade-offs between inflation, growth, liquidity, and currency stability in the wake of the energy price surge triggered by the US-Iran conflict. The RBI had earlier in the year cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% and lowered its CPI inflation forecast for FY2025-26 to 2.6%; a prolonged oil shock risks complicating further easing.

• India CPI Inflation Uptick: India's retail inflation rose to 3.21% in February 2026, up from 2.74% in January, according to Trading Economics data. While still well within the RBI's 2–6% comfort band, the uptick — combined with the energy price shock from the West Asia conflict — will be a key variable the Monetary Policy Committee monitors in its next rate-setting meeting.

What to Watch Tomorrow

• Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation or further de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict will be the single biggest driver of Indian market direction. A ceasefire announcement could propel indices higher; renewed military action risks another sharp sell-off.
• Crude Oil Prices: Whether Brent sustains below $100/barrel or rebounds will directly impact inflation expectations, the rupee, and oil-sensitive sectors like aviation, paints, and chemicals.
• FII Flow Data: Watch for confirmed net FII buy/sell figures for March 25 — a return of foreign buying in cash markets would signal improved risk appetite and could extend the rally towards the 23,500 Nifty level.
• Nifty Technical Levels: After closing at 23,306, the index faces a key resistance zone near 23,500. Analysts will watch whether Thursday's session can build on Wednesday's gains or faces profit-booking near those levels ahead of the weekend.