India Market Daily — March 26, 2026

⚠️ Market Holiday Notice

BSE and NSE are fully closed today (March 26, 2026) for Shri Ram Navami. No equity trading took place. MCX (commodity exchange) observed a partial holiday, resuming evening session trading. NCDEX remained shut for the entire day.

The next scheduled market holiday is March 31, 2026 (Tuesday) for Shri Mahavir Jayanti.

Market Snapshot — Last Close (March 25, 2026)

*Sensex approximate close derived from the +1,205 pt gain reported; exact close not confirmed in sources.

Market Mood: Bullish — ceasefire hopes in the US-Iran conflict and crude oil prices dipping below $100/barrel drove broad-based buying across most sectors on March 25.

What Moved Markets (March 25 Session)

• Crude Oil Drops Below $100/barrel: Brent crude fell below the psychologically significant $100 mark on ceasefire hopes between the US and Iran, providing significant relief to Indian markets which had been battered by energy cost concerns over the past week. Lower crude prices reduce India's import bill and ease inflationary pressure, making equities more attractive.

• Ceasefire Hopes in West Asia: Markets staged a sharp recovery following signals of a potential de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. The prospect of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East was the primary catalyst for the Sensex's 1,205-point gain, as investor risk appetite returned after days of heightened volatility.

• Bernstein Cuts Nifty Target to 26,000: Even as markets rallied, brokerage Bernstein issued a cautionary note, cutting its Nifty 50 target to 26,000 with the warning that "even if oil slips below $100, India isn't safe yet." The note highlights lingering risks from the oil shock and macroeconomic headwinds that could cap the rally.

• Top Movers on March 25: Shriram Finance Ltd led gains with a surge of 5.80% to ₹956. UltraTech Cement advanced 4.09% to ₹11,204, Bajaj Finance climbed 3.98% to ₹882.75, Grasim Industries rose 3.86%, and Adani Enterprises also posted strong gains.

Sector Heatmap (March 25 Session)

• Financials: Strong gains — Shriram Finance (+5.80%), Bajaj Finance (+3.98%) led the sector higher as risk appetite improved with easing geopolitical tensions.
• Cement & Construction: Outperformed — UltraTech Cement surged 4.09% to ₹11,204 as lower crude oil (key input cost) improved sector margin outlook.
• Diversified/Conglomerates: Positive — Grasim Industries rose 3.86% and Adani Enterprises gained, reflecting broad-based buying in large-cap names.
• Energy/Oil & Gas: Mixed — while falling crude prices hurt upstream producers, downstream and refining players saw some relief from lower feedstock costs.

Top Movers (March 25 Session)

Gainers

• Shriram Finance Ltd: +5.80% to ₹956 — led the Nifty gainers list as falling interest rate fears eased and risk-on sentiment returned to financial stocks.
• UltraTech Cement Ltd: +4.09% to ₹11,204 — benefited from falling crude oil prices, which lower energy and logistics costs for cement producers.
• Bajaj Finance Ltd: +3.98% to ₹882.75 — NBFC stocks broadly rallied as improved market sentiment lifted financial sector counters.

Losers

No recent specific loser data available for March 25, 2026 from verified sources within the coverage period.

FII & DII Activity

No specific FII/DII net flow figures for March 25–26, 2026 are available from verified fresh sources.

• Trend: Markets have seen a pattern of FII selling during geopolitical stress episodes (US-Iran conflict week) offset by DII buying — a trend consistent with the volatility seen since late March 2026. Watch for updated flow data when markets reopen on March 27.

Startup & Deal Watch

• Rocketlane: Raised $60 million (₹564 crore) in a Series C funding round led by Insight Partners. The Chennai-based startup provides project management and client onboarding software, and plans to use the funds to expand AI capabilities and global presence.

• Swish: Hit a valuation of $140 million after closing a $38 million (₹315 crore) Series B round. The 10-minute food delivery startup is scaling rapidly and used the fresh capital to accelerate its hyperlocal delivery operations.

• Euler Motors: Raised ₹437.5 crore (~$47 million) in a Series E round led by Lightrock, plus an additional ₹250 crore in debt financing. The Hero MotoCorp-backed electric commercial vehicle maker will use proceeds to expand manufacturing capacity and scale its network.

Macro & Policy

• Goldman Sachs Cuts India 2026 GDP Forecast to 5.9%: Goldman Sachs has lowered its India GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 5.9%, citing persistent pressure from rising oil prices and a depreciating rupee. The bank expects the RBI may need to hike the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to counter currency and inflation pressures. The RBI had last kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% in February 2026, maintaining a neutral stance.

• India Retail Inflation at 3.21% in February: India's retail inflation (CPI) rose to 3.21% in February 2026, up from 2.74% in the prior month, according to Trading Economics data updated as of March 26, 2026. While still well within the RBI's 2-6% target band, the uptick — combined with elevated crude prices — adds complexity to the central bank's policy calculus. Emkay Global has flagged the RBI's challenge in balancing inflation, growth, liquidity, and currency stability amid the ongoing oil shock.

What to Watch Tomorrow (March 27, 2026)

• Markets Reopen: Indian equity markets resume trading on Friday, March 27 after the Ram Navami holiday. Expect elevated volatility as participants react to two days of accumulated global news flow.
• Global Cues: Monitor developments in the US-Iran situation closely — any resumption or escalation of strikes could push crude oil back above $100, reversing Tuesday's rally.
• Brokerage Calls: Bernstein's Nifty target cut to 26,000 and Goldman Sachs' GDP downgrade to 5.9% will be