Japan Market Daily — 2026-04-29

Market Snapshot

Note: Exact closing levels were not fully confirmed in available data at time of publication. The Economic Times and CNBC reported the Nikkei "slipped from a record high" following the BOJ's hawkish hold on April 28–29. Please verify precise figures at .

1 sources

jpx.co.jp

jpx.co.jp

What Moved the Market

• OpenAI growth scare hits SoftBank hard. The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed its own internal revenue and new-user targets. SoftBank Group, one of the largest bettors on AI through its Vision Fund and its high-profile partnership with OpenAI, bore the brunt: shares fell 9.86% to ¥5,268 in Tokyo. The news sent a chill through Japan's AI-adjacent equities and weighed broadly on the Nikkei.

• BOJ holds at 0.75% — but with a hawkish twist. The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as widely expected. However, the decision came with a 6-3 dissent vote — the widest split since Governor Kazuo Ueda assumed office — with three board members pushing for a rate hike. Markets priced in the probability of a hike as soon as the June meeting. The yen initially rallied on the announcement before retreating after Ueda refrained from giving a clear timeline signal. JGBs "wobbled" in response.

• Profit-taking after Nikkei breached 60,000. The index had briefly crossed the historic 60,000 milestone for the first time ever in the prior week, driven by a rally in tech and AI names. With SoftBank leading declines and the BOJ's hawkish tilt adding uncertainty, investors took profits across the board on Tuesday.

• Corporate outlook survey darkens. A survey by Teikoku Databank published in the past 72 hours found that 22.6% of Japanese companies now expect a decline in both revenue and profit for fiscal year 2026 — the third consecutive year that this share has widened — as Middle East risks and yen volatility weigh on business confidence.

1 sources

img.etimg.com

img.etimg.com

Top Movers

Gainers

Losers

Specific gainer and loser rankings beyond SoftBank were not fully available in confirmed sources at publication time.

Corporate Headlines

Toyota completes ¥3.66 trillion share buyback. Toyota Motor Corporation announced the completion of a tender-offer buyback in which it repurchased approximately 1.19 billion shares for roughly ¥3.66 trillion yen — one of the largest buybacks in Japanese corporate history. The company plans to retire 1.2 billion shares (approximately 7.60% of issued stock) on June 30, 2026. The move is part of Toyota's sustained effort to return capital to shareholders and improve ROE, and was filed with the SEC as a Form 6-K.

SoftBank Group loses nearly 10% on OpenAI miss. SoftBank Group shares dropped 9.86% to close at ¥5,268 in Tokyo on Tuesday after the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI — a cornerstone of Masayoshi Son's AI mega-bet — fell short of its own internal targets for both revenue growth and new user acquisition. The news raised questions about the near-term monetisation of AI investments and hit SoftBank, which has staked enormous capital on the thesis that generative AI will produce the next wave of hyper-growth.

DigitalBridge returns to Q1 profitability, agrees to SoftBank sale. US digital infrastructure firm DigitalBridge reported Q1 2026 revenues of $72.2 million and returned to profitability, while simultaneously disclosing an agreement to sell itself to SoftBank affiliates for $16 per share in cash. The deal underscores SoftBank's continued appetite for digital infrastructure assets even amid turbulence in its AI portfolio.

FY2026 corporate outlook survey: 22.6% of Japanese firms brace for revenue and profit decline. A new survey by Teikoku Databank found that more than one-in-five Japanese companies expect both revenue and profits to fall in fiscal year 2026 — marking the third consecutive year in which pessimism has widened. Middle East geopolitical risk and the uncertain yen outlook are cited as key headwinds.

BOJ & Macro Watch

• Rate on hold at 0.75%, but dissent signals June hike risk. The BOJ voted 6-3 to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% on April 28. The three dissenters wanted an immediate hike — the widest split under Governor Ueda — fuelling market expectations that a move could come at the June 2026 meeting. The yen initially rose on the announcement, then gave back gains after Ueda declined to signal a clear timeline for the next move at his post-meeting press conference.

• Yen outlook: brevity of the rally illustrates uncertainty. Bloomberg noted that the yen "turned lower against the dollar" after Ueda's cautious press conference, underscoring that while the BOJ is moving in a hawkish direction, the pace remains data-dependent. The yen had been hovering near levels that previously prompted intervention concerns ahead of the meeting.

• JGB yields wobble. Japanese government bond yields swung in reaction to the policy decision, with the hawkish dissent vote putting modest upward pressure on longer-dated yields even as the near-term rate remained unchanged.

What to Watch Tomorrow

• BOJ follow-up language. Markets will parse any additional comments from BOJ officials in the coming days for further clues on whether June represents a live meeting for a rate hike; any hawkish guidance would add further yen pressure to export-heavy Nikkei components.
• Toyota March 2026 sales, production and export data. Toyota published its March 2026 cumulative figures (April 2025–March 2026 fiscal year) this week; the detailed market-by-market breakdown will be scrutinised for signals on global demand amid Middle East uncertainty and tariff risks.
• AI / tech sector sentiment. Following the OpenAI growth-miss story, watch for any response from SoftBank management or OpenAI itself; a rebuttal or clarification could provide a floor for SoftBank shares and the broader AI-related segment of the Nikkei.