China's AI Chips and Export Controls: Ascend, SMIC — 2026-09-28
The big story this week: Bernstein data shows Huawei's Ascend line now holds roughly 50% of China's AI chip market while Nvidia has collapsed to 8%. Huawei is curbing overseas exports of Ascend chips because domestic demand outstrips supply, and reports that Beijing may again allow Nvidia purchases for ByteDance and Alibaba knocked Chinese chip stocks down sharply.
China's AI Chips and Export Controls: Ascend, SMIC — 2026-09-28
Top developments
Bernstein: Ascend at 50% share, Nvidia down to 8% in China
New analysis attributed to Bernstein Research estimates Huawei's Ascend chips have reached about 50% of China's AI chip market, while Nvidia's share has sunk to roughly 8% by 2026 — a decline Jensen Huang has himself confirmed. The figures mark a symbolic reversal in a market Nvidia once dominated, and strengthen Huawei's negotiating position with buyers and with Beijing.,
Huawei curbs overseas Ascend exports; Atlas cluster hits 120 exaflops
Huawei says demand for Ascend AI chips inside China now exceeds its supply, and it is therefore restricting exports of the chips abroad. The company's 15,488-chip Atlas cluster reportedly reaches 120 exaflops of performance — a demonstration of the "supernode + cluster" strategy Huawei is betting on over single-chip parity with Nvidia.
Beijing may approve Nvidia RTX Pro 5500 sales to ByteDance and Alibaba
On September 28, Seoul Economic Daily reported China is weighing approval for ByteDance and Alibaba to buy Nvidia's RTX Pro 5500 AI chips — a pragmatic shift as Huawei's supply falls short of demand. The report, which follows MIIT inquiries into enterprise chip needs, sent Chinese chip stocks down: A-share names fell broadly, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices each dropping more than 4% per Investing.com's same-day coverage.,,
Huawei and Cambricon raise AI chip prices up to 50% amid HBM shortage
Huawei and Cambricon have hiked AI chip prices by as much as 50%, as a shortage of HBM memory — tied to US export restrictions — forces them onto costlier grey-market memory supply. Price inflation underscores that the binding constraint on China's AI chip output is now memory, not just SMIC wafer capacity.
Chips enter the Trump–Xi summit frame
At the US–China summit, Xi Jinping's confidence in chip self-sufficiency was a central narrative: CNBC reported on September 24 that a run of new chips and AI models from national champions (Huawei, Alibaba and others) arms Beijing with the message "You can't choke us off." Notably, Nvidia's Jensen Huang and AMD's Lisa Su were seated together at the September 24 White House state dinner, while Chinese commentary noted Nvidia and AMD still face barriers returning to the Chinese market.,
Local view
Chinese-language commentary stressed that the chip issue remains unresolved despite the summit's good optics. Guancha Observer (via Sina/Ifeng) wrote that "the chip issue did not follow the cousins to the main table" — meaning Nvidia and AMD's return to China remains blocked — but that "China's internal strength is stronger now," pointing to domestic gains from Huawei, Cambricon, Hygon and peers., Financial media in China also tracked the market reaction: A-share compute-chip names including Moore Threads, Cambricon-linked supply chain, Hygon and Loongson waits for clarity on whether Beijing will greenlight Nvidia sales, with the broader market down sharply on the report.
Context & numbers
- Huawei Ascend: ~50% China AI chip market share; Nvidia: ~8% (Bernstein, 2026 estimates).
- Huawei/Cambricon AI chip prices: up to +50% due to HBM shortage and grey-market memory sourcing.
- Huawei Atlas 15,488-chip cluster: ~120 exaflops.
- Ascend 960DT/960PR remain slated for Q1 and Q3 2027 per Huawei's roadmap, with 960DT targeting 4 PFLOPS FP4 and 960PR 8 PFLOPS FP4 with 288GB HBM3E.,
- Market reaction (Sept 28): over 4,800 A-share stocks declined; ChiNext and STAR 50 down more than 4% each.
On the radar
- Watch for a formal decision on Nvidia RTX Pro 5500 or H200-class licences for ByteDance, Alibaba and others — US BIS rules (in force since January 15, 2026) already allow case-by-case review of H200/MI325X-class exports to China.
- Reported smuggling of controlled Nvidia GPUs into China via Southeast Asian third countries is under scrutiny and could trigger tightened US enforcement.
- The Q4 2026 Ascend 950DT launch window is the next major domestic milestone, with SMIC wafer allocation between inference (950PR/960PR) and training (950DT/960DT) variants a key variable.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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