HBM Memory: SK hynix, Samsung, Micron — October 23, 2026
The high-bandwidth memory (HBM) landscape is shifting rapidly as Samsung Electronics is projected to overtake SK hynix in Q3 2026 HBM revenue for the first time, driven by improved yields and aggressive HBM4 production scaling. Concurrently, Micron outlined a detailed roadmap through 2030, rejecting Chinese architectural workarounds, while both Korean giants upgrade Chinese fabs to counter emerging local competition.
HBM Memory: SK hynix, Samsung, Micron — October 23, 2026
Top developments
Samsung projected to overtake SK hynix in HBM revenue
For the first time, Samsung Electronics is expected to surpass SK hynix in third-quarter 2026 HBM revenue, according to estimates from Bernstein. The report indicates Samsung generated approximately $8.7 billion in HBM revenue in Q3, a 33% quarter-over-quarter increase, narrowing the historical gap significantly. This shift marks a critical inflection point in the HBM4 qualification race, where Samsung’s yield improvements on HBM4 stacks are finally converting into market share against SK hynix’s long-standing dominance.
Micron maps HBM roadmap to 2030, rejects Chinese density workaround
In a webinar held on October 21, 2026, Micron disclosed its most detailed public plan for high-bandwidth memory, committing to annual generations through HBM6 in 2030. The company explicitly rejected the 4F2 DRAM cell architecture used by Chinese rival CXMT to bypass US export controls, signaling a focus on traditional scaling and advanced stacking rather than architectural shortcuts. This roadmap aims to close the capacity gap with Korean rivals, targeting 100,000 HBM wafers per month by the end of 2026.
SK hynix and Samsung upgrade Chinese fabs for advanced RAM
Amid intensifying AI data center competition and pressure from Chinese domestic producers like CXMT, both Samsung and SK hynix are upgrading their Chinese manufacturing plants to produce advanced RAM chips. This strategic move allows them to maintain technological lead and supply chain control in a key market, despite ongoing US export curbs. The upgrades are specifically aimed at producing higher-density DRAM and HBM variants to offset the threat posed by local Chinese manufacturers.
Nvidia CEO denies 2029 memory glut fears
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pushed back against reports predicting a memory supply glut by 2029, stating in a CNBC interview that there is "no sign" of such a surplus. Huang emphasized that demand for HBM and LPDDR memory will remain robust due to the long-term nature of AI infrastructure development. His comments helped stabilize memory stocks, which had faced selling pressure from fears of oversupply and Chinese competition.
Local view
Korean media outlets are closely tracking the narrowing gap between the country's two memory giants. Chosun Ilbo reports that while SK hynix is still expected to post record operating profits in Q3, its dominance in the HBM4 market is facing "warning lights" as Samsung closes the distance. Investing.com highlights Bernstein’s analysis that Samsung’s HBM revenue has effectively overtaken SK hynix’s in Q3, a historic first for the sector. Meanwhile, Sedaily reveals that Samsung is collaborating with TSMC to develop the base die for next-generation customized HBM for Nvidia, a significant shift in supply chain strategy.
Context & numbers
- Market Share Shift: Counterpoint Research data cited by BigGo Finance shows SK hynix’s HBM revenue share dropped to 50% in Q2 from 58% in Q1, while Samsung’s share climbed to 33% from 21%.
- Pricing Trends: TrendForce notes that conventional DRAM contract prices rose 53–58% in Q1 2026, with Q2 prices expected to rise another 58–63% due to capacity reallocation toward HBM.
- Micron Capacity: Micron is targeting a production capacity of 100,000 HBM wafers per month by the end of 2026 to rival Korean competitors.
- Nvidia Supply: JP Morgan estimates that SK hynix will hold a 54% share of Nvidia’s HBM supply for 2026, despite Samsung’s recent gains.
On the radar
- SK hynix Earnings: SK hynix is scheduled to release its Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026. Analysts are watching for confirmation of record operating profits and details on HBM4 yield rates.
- Micron Strike: Reports indicate a 24-hour strike at Micron’s Taiwan factory over performance bonus distributions, which could impact short-term supply or signal labor tensions in the sector.
- HBM4 Equipment Orders: Korean semiconductor equipment suppliers are reporting a surge in contracts for wafer inspection tools and TC bonders specifically for HBM4 production lines at Samsung and SK hynix.
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