HBM Memory: SK hynix, Samsung, Micron — 2026-09-11
Samsung Electronics has significantly narrowed the gap with market leader SK hynix, capturing 33% of the HBM market in Q2 2026 as inventory levels across top manufacturers crash to historic lows. Meanwhile, Micron is aggressively doubling its HBM production capacity to reach 100,000 wafers per month by year-end, aiming to secure a larger share of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin supply chain.
HBM Memory: SK hynix, Samsung, Micron — 2026-09-11
Top developments
Samsung Doubles HBM Share to 33%, Challenging SK hynix Dominance
In a significant shift in the high-bandwidth memory landscape, Samsung Electronics increased its HBM revenue share to 33% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 21% in the previous period. This surge cuts the gap with leader SK hynix to just 17 percentage points, marking Samsung's most successful quarter in HBM qualification and sales to date. The gain is attributed to improved yields on HBM3E and early ramp-up of HBM4 shipments, allowing Samsung to capture more volume from key AI accelerator customers.
Micron Targets 100,000 Wafers/Month Capacity by End-2026
Micron Technology is reportedly accelerating its capital expenditure plans to double its monthly HBM capacity to approximately 100,000 wafers by the end of 2026. This aggressive expansion focuses on 12-layer HBM4 production specifically for Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin platform, aiming to close the scale disadvantage against Samsung and SK hynix. Industry insiders note that this capacity boost is critical for Micron to meet long-term supply agreements and stabilize its position in the AI memory market.
Inventory Crisis: Top Makers Drop Below 10-Day Supply
A KB Securities report from September 7 reveals that both Samsung and SK hynix have seen their finished DRAM inventories fall below 10 days, a historic low driven by insatiable AI demand. The report highlights that HBM4 production consumes three times the wafer capacity of conventional DRAM, effectively removing supply from the general market as fast as it is produced. This severe shortage is expected to sustain upward pressure on DRAM contract prices throughout the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
Goldman Sachs Flips Constructive on Memory Stocks
Following a period of volatility, Goldman Sachs upgraded its outlook on the memory sector, citing that the worst of the cycle may be over. The note triggered a rally in shares of SK hynix (up 5%), SanDisk (up 3%), and Micron (up 2%), reflecting renewed investor confidence in sustained HBM pricing power and demand visibility. Analysts point to strong order backlogs from major cloud service providers as the primary driver for this positive sentiment shift.
Local view
Korean media outlets are closely monitoring the intensifying competition between domestic giants and US rival Micron. Seoul Economic Daily highlights Samsung's strategic pivot to regain market share, noting that the company's ability to balance Foundry and Memory demands is now a critical factor in its HBM yield improvements. Meanwhile, Chosun Ilbo reports on the broader impact of memory strength on the KOSPI index, which recently broke through the 7,000 mark, driven largely by semiconductor sector performance. The local consensus suggests that while SK hynix maintains its technological lead, Samsung's rapid catch-up is reshaping the duopoly dynamics in South Korea.
Context & numbers
The global DRAM market continues to expand, with TrendForce reporting Q2 2026 global DRAM revenue hitting $154.73 billion. In the specific HBM segment, SK hynix retains a dominant position but faces eroding margins as competitors scale up. Samsung's HBM share jump to 33% represents a significant reallocation of industry revenue, previously concentrated with SK hynix. Micron's capacity expansion plans indicate a tri-polar competition structure is solidifying, with all three major players targeting >100k wafer/month capacities to serve the AI accelerator boom.
On the radar
- Nvidia Vera Rubin Launch: Further details on HBM4 qualification results for Nvidia's next-gen platform are expected in late September, which will determine final supplier allocations for 2027.
- Q3 Earnings Previews: Investors are awaiting guidance from SK hynix and Samsung for Q3, focusing on HBM4 yield rates and the sustainability of current contract price hikes.
- New ETF Launches: The "NRAM" ETF, featuring heavy weights in Micron and SK hynix, launched recently, potentially driving additional institutional inflows into memory stocks.
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