HBM Memory: SK hynix, Samsung, Micron — 2026-09-03

Top developments

Samsung’s HBM Share Jumps to 33%, Narrowing Gap with SK hynix

In Q2 2026, Samsung Electronics significantly increased its High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market share to 33%, up from 21% a year prior, while SK hynix’s share fell to 50% from 58% in the previous quarter. This shift suggests that Samsung’s HBM4 production is gaining traction with major customers like Nvidia, potentially altering the long-standing dominance of SK hynix. The move is driven by Samsung’s improved yields and capacity expansions at its Pyeongtaek facilities, aiming to secure a larger portion of the lucrative AI accelerator market.

SK hynix CEO Predicts Memory Shortage Until 2030

SK hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung stated on August 27 that the shortage of high-bandwidth memory chips could continue until the end of 2030, citing sustained demand from AI infrastructure that outpaces capacity additions. Speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony for a new HBM packaging plant in West Lafayette, Indiana, Kwak noted that there are no clear signs of market saturation. The $4 billion facility is expected to begin mass production of "Made in USA" HBM4E chips by the third quarter of 2029, targeting Nvidia and other US-based customers to mitigate supply chain risks.

Micron Faces Strike Risk at Key Taiwan HBM Facilities

Micron Technology faces potential production disruptions as approximately 10,000 workers at its Taoyuan and Taichung facilities in Taiwan have moved toward strike action as of September 1, 2026. The workers are demanding a change in their incentive pay structure, seeking 15% of operating profits instead of the current plan. This development poses a significant risk to global HBM supply, given that Taiwan is Micron’s largest manufacturing hub for DRAM and HBM, and all of Micron’s HBM output for 2026 and 2027 is already sold out.

Analysts Adjust Targets: Samsung Up, SK hynix Down

LS Securities raised its target price for Samsung Electronics to 450,000 won while cutting SK hynix’s target by 27% to 2.4 million won, citing Samsung’s stronger momentum in HBM4 qualification and supply. The analyst firm noted that while overall demand remains robust, the competitive landscape is shifting as Samsung captures more of the Nvidia Vera Rubin platform orders. This re-rating reflects growing confidence in Samsung’s ability to leverage its integrated logic and memory capabilities to gain market share against SK hynix.

Local view

Korean media outlets are closely monitoring the shifting balance of power between Samsung and SK hynix. Seoul Economic Daily highlights the analyst downgrades for SK hynix, emphasizing that while the shortage supports prices, competition is intensifying. ZDNet Korea reports that both Samsung and SK hynix are increasing shipments of 8-layer HBM4 to Nvidia in the second half of 2026, a move driven by Nvidia’s strategy to diversify supply and manage thermal performance across different stack heights. This indicates that Nvidia is actively balancing its supplier portfolio rather than relying solely on SK hynix’s 12-layer offerings.

Context & numbers

• Market Share: In Q1 2026, Samsung led the general DRAM market with 38%, followed by SK hynix with 29%. However, in the specific HBM segment, SK hynix held 50% in Q2 2026, down from previous highs, while Samsung rose to 33%.
• Pricing Trends: DRAM spot prices have risen 37% year-over-year, with spot prices reaching five times higher than Long-Term Agreement (LTA) rates for certain components, reflecting extreme tightness in the supply chain.
• Capacity Investments: SK hynix is investing $4 billion in its Indiana packaging facility, expected to create 7,000 jobs. The company is also evaluating Intel Foundry as an alternative to TSMC for HBM4E base dies to diversify its supply chain.

On the radar

• Micron Earnings: Investors are watching Micron’s upcoming quarterly results closely, especially given the labor unrest in Taiwan and the stock’s recent volatility amidst broader semiconductor sector declines.
• Nvidia Server Price Hikes: Reports suggest Nvidia may raise prices for Vera Rubin servers by over 15% in early 2027, which could further boost HBM contract prices for suppliers like SK hynix and Samsung.