HBM Memory: SK hynix, Samsung, Micron — 2026-09-13
Micron is aggressively expanding its High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) capacity, targeting 100,000 wafers per month by year-end to close the gap with Korean rivals. Meanwhile, Samsung’s HBM market share has surged to 33%, narrowing the lead of SK hynix, while memory inventories at both major Korean firms have dropped below critical 10-day levels due to HBM4 production demands.
HBM Memory: SK hynix, Samsung, Micron — 2026-09-13
Top developments
Micron Targets 100k WPM HBM Capacity by Year-End
According to Nikkei Asia and industry reports from early September, Micron plans to add up to 60,000 HBM wafer starts per month by the end of 2026, aiming for a total monthly capacity of approximately 100,000 wafers. This represents a near-doubling of its previous output levels and is specifically geared toward ramping up 12-high HBM4 production for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin AI platform. This aggressive expansion signals Micron’s intent to challenge the duopoly of SK hynix and Samsung in the high-margin HBM segment.
Samsung’s HBM Share Jumps to 33%, Closing Gap with SK hynix
New data indicates that Samsung Electronics has rapidly rebuilt its position in the HBM market, with its market share rising to 33% in Q2 2026, up from 21% just a year prior. This growth has narrowed the gap with market leader SK hynix, which holds a 50% share, down from previous quarters. Analysts attribute this shift to improved yields on HBM4 and successful qualification efforts for major AI customers, marking a significant turnaround for Samsung after earlier struggles with HBM3E.
Memory Inventories Drop Below 10 Days as HBM4 Devours Capacity
A September 7 report from KB Securities reveals that finished DRAM inventories at both Samsung and SK hynix have fallen below 10 days, a historic low driven by the intense wafer consumption required for HBM4 production. HBM4 consumes approximately three times the conventional DRAM wafer capacity, effectively removing supply from the standard market as fast as new demand builds. This severe tightness is expected to support sustained high prices for both HBM and conventional DRAM throughout the second half of 2026.
Local view
Korean financial media are closely monitoring the diverging stock performances of SK hynix and Samsung following DeepSeek’s debut of AI technology that utilizes less memory. Finance Yahoo and local outlets note that while SK hynix and Samsung shares dipped on these efficiency concerns, Micron and SanDisk held steady, suggesting investors view Micron’s capacity expansion as a more immediate positive than potential demand headwinds. Additionally, Asia Economy reported that Micron’s push to 100,000 wafers per month is being seen in Korea as a serious threat to the "K-Memory" duopoly structure, prompting discussions on how domestic firms will maintain their technological edge in HBM4E and beyond.
Context & numbers
- HBM Market Share: SK hynix leads with ~50%, followed by Samsung at 33%, with Micron holding the remainder.
- DRAM Inventory Levels: Both Samsung and SK hynix have dropped below 10 days of finished goods inventory.
- Micron Capacity Target: ~100,000 wafers per month by end of 2026 (up from ~50k).
- Q2 2026 Global DRAM Revenue: Hit $154.73 billion, reflecting the ongoing memory supercycle.
On the radar
- DeepSeek Impact: Monitor whether DeepSeek's memory-efficient AI models lead to any short-term softening in HBM order forecasts from hyperscalers, though current supply constraints may mask any demand shifts.
- Nvidia Vera Rubin Ramp: Watch for confirmation of 12-high HBM4 shipments to Nvidia, which will be a key test for Micron's expanded capacity and Samsung's yield improvements.
- SK hynix 1c DRAM Transition: SK hynix is accelerating its shift to 1c DRAM, targeting 34% of total production by end-2026, a critical step for future HBM4E competitiveness against Samsung's in-house logic node advantages.
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