AI Networking and Optics: NVLink, Ethernet, CPO — 2026-09-25
This past week was framed by surging Ethernet switching demand, a new AI network fabric market forecast, and fresh confirmation from China's transceiver leaders that 1.6T optics have entered mass-volume shipping. Arista drew renewed investor attention at a Goldman Sachs conference, while Nomura's CIOE outlook highlighted the NPO vs CPO路线 debate in China's optical supply chain.
AI Networking and Optics: NVLink, Ethernet, CPO — 2026-09-25
Top developments
Ethernet switching market transformed by GenAI buildout
The Next Platform published an analysis on September 20 arguing that the GenAI server boom is accelerating and reshaping the Ethernet switch and router markets, with AI fabrics now a defining driver of switching demand. The piece frames Ethernet as the primary beneficiary of the shift from InfiniBand-centric clusters to standards-based scale-out fabrics, even as InfiniBand shows rebounds in some segments. This matters because switching silicon — led by Broadcom and increasingly Nvidia's Spectrum-X line — is the backbone of scale-out AI fabrics.
AI network fabric market forecast published amid gigascale cluster demand
A GlobeNewswire market report released September 22 tracks the Global AI Network Fabric Market across component types, fabric technologies, fabric types, and workloads with a 2026–2035 forecast, citing gigascale AI clusters as the core demand driver for high-speed, low-latency connectivity. The report's taxonomy underscores how NVLink-style scale-up and Ethernet/InfiniBand scale-out have become distinct, investable market segments.
X-EYLink (新易盛): 1.6T transceivers now in sustained volume ramp
On September 21, X-EYLink told investors on the Shenzhen exchange's interactive platform that its 1.6T optical modules have entered a sustained volume-production phase and that shipment pace is expected to keep accelerating. The company said the entire supply chain remains relatively tight and that it has locked in supply through locking agreements and advance payments. This is a direct signal that next-generation 1.6T optics — key for Tomahawk 6-class 102.4T switch systems — are moving from samples to volume.
Arista's AI networking push draws fresh investor attention
Arista Networks presented at a Goldman Sachs conference in mid-September, with management citing AI demand as a growth driver for its high-speed Ethernet fabrics. A September 22 Motley Fool piece argued networking is the next bottleneck in the AI supercycle, pointing to Arista's accelerating growth, and a September 25 Kalkine analysis highlighted Arista's expansion of AI networking — Ethernet fabrics, optical technologies, and enterprise systems — within the S&P 500. Arista remains the hyperscaler counterweight to Nvidia's Spectrum-X in Ethernet AI fabrics.
OSFP and 1.6T optics guide underscores migration path
Robotics & Automation News published a September 22 technical guide covering OSFP form factors for 400G, 800G, and 1.6T transceivers aimed at AI and hyperscale data centers, including thermal design, power, and breakout options. The guide lands as 1.6T deployments ramp in the second half of 2026, the window in which sample shipments of 1.6T were already projected to scale.
Local view
Chinese financial and social media is intensely focused on the domestic optical module leaders. 21经济网 (21jingji) reported X-EYLink's (新易盛) September 21 disclosure that 1.6T is in sustained volume shipping with a tight supply chain. Sina-sourced analysis of Nomura Securities' CIOE investment preview highlighted 1.6T capacity expansion, accelerated 3.2T/6.4T NPO/CPO landing, and rising silicon-photonics penetration, naming 华工科技, 光迅科技, and 中际旭创 among the beneficiaries. Another widely circulated Sina analysis argued that NPO — not CPO — remains the 2026 mainstream, forecasting NPO shipments at roughly 6x CPO in 2026–2027 with layered coexistence through 2030.
Context & numbers
- TrendForce (cited by FB-LINK) projects the AI-focused optical transceiver market growing from US$16.5 billion in 2025 to US$26 billion in 2026
- Earlier analyst projections indicate 800G-and-above transceivers will exceed 60% of total shipments in 2026
- Broadcom guided to about $115 billion in AI chip revenue for the fiscal year ending October 2027, up from a prior forecast
- Nvidia's Ethernet switch share rose from under 4% to 21.5% in a year (upto July data context)
On the radar
- CIOE follow-through: Nomura-style analyst roadmaps flag 3.2T/6.4T NPO/CPO solutions and SiPh penetration as the next exhibition-cycle themes to watch
- Liquid-cooled optics: industry forecasts cited in Chinese media project the global optical module liquid cooling market at ~US$1 billion in 2026, rising to over US$6.3 billion by 2030 (~58% CAGR)
- Third-party market trackers (24/7 Wall St., September 23) are spotlighting networking suppliers as proxies for AI data-center demand — watch for follow-on earnings guidance from Arista and Broadcom
- Active optical cable demand is forecast to expand through 2035 on AI/hyperscale interconnect growth, per IndexBox's September 23 release
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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