Legacy Automakers in Transition: VW, Toyota, GM, Stellantis — 2026-09-25
Volkswagen's Canadian EV battery plant延误 dominates the week: PowerCo announced a two-year delay at its $7 billion St. Thomas gigafactory, drawing an unusually upbeat response from Ontario's government. Meanwhile, Cox Automotive forecasts GM and Ford losing U.S. market share as Asian brands top half of sales, and an EY analysis shows VW, Mercedes and BMW's operating profit slumping 19% in H1 2026.
Legacy Automakers in Transition: VW, Toyota, GM, Stellantis — 2026-09-25
Top developments
VW's PowerCo delays St. Thomas gigafactory by two years
On Thursday (Sept. 24), PowerCo Canada, Volkswagen's battery subsidiary, announced a two-year delay to production start at its $7 billion gigafactory in St. Thomas, Ontario. Ontario's Ford government called the delay "nothing but good news," framing it as a pacing adjustment rather than a retreat — but it is the latest sign of EV-demand softness pushing legacy automakers to slow battery investments.
EY analysis: VW, Mercedes, BMW operating profit down 19%
An EY comparison of 19 global car groups shows German automakers' combined operating profit fell 19% to €13.0 billion in the first half of 2026, with revenue down 2.9%. VW's 2026 profit-margin guidance was cut to around 1% after a heavy Porsche-related write-down and weak China business — developments covered in the prior issue, but the fresh EY data quantifies the depth of the German slump. IG Metall has announced protests at more than 200 locations against job cuts.
Cox forecasts GM, Ford share losses; Hyundai to outsell Ford in Q3
Cox Automotive's quarterly forecast (Sept. 24) projects GM and Ford posting the steepest market-share declines among the 13 automakers it tracks, as Asian brands top half of U.S. sales for the first time in a while. Cox analysts say Detroit's hybrid shortfall is the key driver: Hyundai is expected to outsell Ford in Q3 because GM and Ford lack competitive hybrid lineups. GM is still forecast to remain the U.S. sales leader in 2026, but with a 6.2% sales decline as Toyota narrows the gap.
GM doubles down on V-8s amid hybrid boom, Stellantis pauses hiring
GM announced new V-8-powered pickups, locking in gas-engined strength while hybrids surge as a competitor — a bet some analysts argue is more defensible than it looks given GM's strong North America margins (8.6% EBIT-adjusted in Q2). Stellantis, by contrast, paused white-collar hiring this week to cut fixed costs as EV adoption stays volatile; it doesn't expect positive free cash flow until 2027.
Honda to build new hybrid plant in Ohio; Espinosa turnaround gains traction
Japanese media report Honda's stock rallied on Sept. 24 after news it will build a new hybrid vehicle plant in Ohio, reinforcing its U.S. production footprint amid tariff pressure. Gendai magazine notes new CEO "offensive management" has returned Honda to profitability, and revived speculation about whether the once-stalled Honda-Nissan "No. 2 + No. 3 alliance" might still happen.
Local view
- German media (heise, WirtschaftsWoche, t-online) framed the EY data as a "crisis report card" for VW, Mercedes and BMW, highlighting falling China sales and IG Metall's planned protests at over 200 sites against job cuts.
- Ontario's premier Doug Ford's government welcomed the PowerCo delay as "nothing but good news," spinning a slower timeline as protecting taxpayers; Canadian auto analysts are less certain the two-year slip signals strength.
- US dealer outlets (CBT News) report Stellantis will impose a minimum advertised pricing policy for Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram dealers from Oct. 1 — dealer Phil Pecoraro discussed how MAAP, used-car opportunities and potential Chinese imports are reshaping dealer trust and profitability.
Context & numbers
- German trio (VW, Mercedes, BMW) H1 2026 operating profit: €13.0 billion, −19%; revenue −2.9%.
- VW's 2026 operating-margin guidance cut to roughly 1% after a Porsche write-down.
- PowerCo St. Thomas: $7 billion investment, production delayed two years.
- U.S. S-curve context: U.S. new-vehicle sales fell 6.6% in August, with strong hybrid demand offsetting weakness.
- Cox forecast: GM 2026 U.S. sales −6.2%, still #1; Toyota closing the gap; Hyundai to outsell Ford in Q3.
On the radar
- Stellantis MAAP (minimum advertised pricing) goes live Oct. 1 for its U.S. brands — watch dealer reaction and pricing discipline.
- U.S. auto giants are lobbying to keep high tariffs on BYD and CATL rather than trade them away as diplomatic bargaining chips.
- IG Metall protests at 200+ German locations against industry job cuts — escalation could pressure VW wage talks.
- Rumor (rumor only): revived Honda-Nissan alliance speculation resurfacing in Japanese media as both firms stabilize.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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