Tesla Watch: Deliveries, FSD, Robotaxi and Musk — 2026-10-10
Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory posted its highest monthly sales of 2026 in September, driven by a 58% surge in exports despite a 9% year-on-year drop in domestic Chinese retail. Meanwhile, the Austin robotaxi fleet expanded significantly with 150 new Cybercabs registered, and Tesla began rolling out FSD v14.3.11 to early access users.
Tesla Watch: Deliveries, FSD, Robotaxi and Musk — 2026-10-10
Top developments
Shanghai factory hits 2026 sales peak amid domestic slowdown
Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory delivered 95,366 vehicles in September, marking the highest single-month figure for 2026 and a 10.7% increase month-over-month. While total deliveries rose, domestic retail sales in China fell 9.4% year-on-year to 64,837 units, continuing a four-month streak of declines. However, this dip was offset by a massive 58% year-on-year surge in exports to other markets, allowing the factory to maintain strong overall output.
Cybercab fleet doubles in Texas with 150 new registrations
Tesla has nearly doubled its registered Cybercab fleet in Texas, adding 150 vehicles to the state’s automated vehicle registry on Thursday. This brings the total number of registered purpose-built robotaxis in the state to 319, up from approximately 169 earlier in the month. This rapid expansion follows a rocky first month in Austin, where initial operations were limited to 45 authorized vehicles, highlighting Tesla's aggressive push to scale its robotaxi service.
FSD v14.3.11 rollout begins for early access users
Tesla has initiated the rollout of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software version 14.3.11 (build 2026.33.5) to early access testers. Early impression videos and release notes indicate ongoing refinements to the neural network's handling of complex urban scenarios. This update is critical as Tesla faces increasing scrutiny from regulators regarding its "Full Self-Driving" naming convention in Europe and safety data claims in the US.
Analysts link $500 stock target to robotaxi expansion
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reaffirmed his $500 price target for Tesla, arguing that the valuation hinges entirely on the successful expansion of the Robotaxi network and FSD adoption rather than traditional vehicle sales. Ives views Tesla primarily as an AI and robotics company, noting that the recent delivery numbers are secondary to the potential monetization of unsupervised autonomy.
Local view
China: Domestic pressure vs. export strength
Chinese media outlets like 21st Century Business Herald and Sina Finance highlight the divergence between Shanghai’s export strength and domestic retail weakness. Reports emphasize that while Model Y remains the top-selling SUV in China across all powertrains, domestic competition is forcing Tesla to rely more heavily on international markets. The narrative focuses on how the 58% export jump saved September’s performance, masking the underlying softness in Chinese consumer demand.
Germany: Battery production plans solidify in Grünheide
German tech outlets like Ecomento and Battery News are reporting on Tesla’s concrete plans to begin manufacturing 4680 battery cells at the Berlin-Brandenburg Gigafactory starting in 2027. The facility aims for an annual capacity of up to 18 GWh and is recruiting over 1,500 employees for the battery division. This move is seen as a strategic step to reduce reliance on Asian supply chains and secure local battery production for European vehicles.
Context & numbers
- Q3 Global Deliveries: 486,532 vehicles (up 1.3% QoQ, down 2.1% YoY).
- Shanghai September Deliveries: 95,366 units (highest of 2026).
- China Retail Sales: 64,837 units (down 9.4% YoY).
- Texas Cybercab Registry: 319 registered vehicles (up from ~169).
- Energy Storage Deployment: 13.7 GWh in Q3.
On the radar
- Q3 Earnings Call: Scheduled for October 21, 2026. Investors will be looking for updated guidance on margins following the Q3 delivery beat and details on the Cybercab expansion timeline.
- NHTSA Probe Escalation: The US auto-safety regulator has upgraded its probe into 3.2 million Tesla vehicles regarding FSD visibility issues, a step that precedes a potential recall order. (Note: While the initial probe news was earlier, the escalation status remains a live regulatory risk impacting current sentiment).
- European Naming Change: DER SPIEGEL reports that Tesla may drop the "Full Self-Driving" name in Europe to appease regulators, potentially rebranding it to align with local assisted-driving definitions.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Powered by
