Tesla Watch: Deliveries, FSD, Robotaxi and Musk — 2026-09-13
Tesla faces a regulatory and financial squeeze as the NHTSA opens a formal investigation into Cybercab certifications while Chinese sales growth slows to single digits. Despite the probe, Tesla has begun accepting purchase interest for the Cybercab, signaling a shift toward direct fleet sales amid rising operational costs in Austin.
Top developments
NHTSA Launches Formal Probe into Cybercab Certification
On September 4, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) opened an investigation into how Tesla certified the Cybercab for public roads. The agency stated it would examine the technical data and processes Tesla relied upon, estimating that approximately 1,000 vehicles fall under this review. This action introduces significant regulatory risk to Tesla's robotaxi rollout, which had already faced scrutiny from lawmakers regarding FSD safety claims.
Tesla Opens Cybercab Purchase Interest Portal
Following the launch of public passenger rides in Austin, Tesla has quietly introduced a mechanism for users to express interest in purchasing a Cybercab. This step marks Tesla’s first move toward commercial Cybercab sales, potentially shifting the business model from pure fleet operation to direct ownership or fleet leasing for entrepreneurs. However, analysts warn that the economics of running a Cybercab fleet may be dubious given current demand dynamics.
Cybercab Fares Surge Due to High Demand
Data from the first week of public operations in Austin shows that Cybercab fares have climbed significantly, particularly during weekends, making rides more expensive than Uber and even Tesla’s own Model Y Robotaxi service. The price surge is attributed to high demand exceeding initial supply capacity. This dynamic suggests that while consumer interest is strong, the unit economics of the robotaxi service may face pressure if pricing volatility continues or if competitors undercut these rates.
China Sales Growth Slows Sharply
Tesla’s China-made vehicle sales grew just 3.6% year-over-year in August, a sharp deceleration from July’s 38% gain. This slowdown indicates that Tesla is losing momentum in the world’s largest EV market despite aggressive promotional efforts. The Shanghai factory’s output and delivery metrics are now under increased scrutiny as competition from local Chinese automakers intensifies.
Local view
In China, local media reported a surge in orders following Tesla’s latest price incentives announced on September 7. The policy offers cash incentives of ¥5,000 for Model 3 and ¥10,000 for Model Y for deliveries by September 30. Jiemian News reported that sales staff in Beijing experienced a spike in inquiries, with one store receiving new orders before officially opening. However, industry observers note this is a "disguised price cut" aimed at clearing inventory and meeting quarterly targets rather than reflecting organic demand strength.
Context & numbers
- Q2 2026 Baseline: Tesla produced over 450,000 vehicles and delivered over 480,000 vehicles in Q2 2026.
- China August Growth: Year-over-year sales growth in China dropped to 3.6% in August, compared to 38% in July.
- Cybercab Investigation Scope: The NHTSA investigation covers approximately 1,000 Cybercab vehicles.
- China Incentives: Current promotions offer up to ¥10,000 (approx. $1,400) in cash rebates for Model Y purchases before September 30, 2026.
On the radar
- NHTSA Findings: Investors and regulators are awaiting the initial findings of the Cybercab certification review, which could impact future autonomous vehicle approvals.
- Cybercab Expansion: Elon Musk has hinted at expanding the Cybercab service to new U.S. markets beyond Austin, with Dallas and Houston mentioned as potential next steps.
- Grünheide Production Targets: Tesla continues to push for 7,500 vehicles per week at its Berlin factory, though reports suggest the target remains challenging despite extra shifts.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Powered by
