Baijiu and Asian Spirits: Moutai to Mekong — 2026-09-28
The Mid-Autumn/National Day "double festival" season is showing a split picture: overall baijiu sell-through is down roughly 10% year-on-year, but Moutai reports ~20% sell-through growth in many provinces and Wuliangye is also up in key regions. Moutai launched a new RMB 2,199 four-seasons product that sold out on i-Moutai in one minute, while Wuliangye committed to dividends of no less than RMB 20 billion. Huachuang Securities says terminal inventories are falling and industry bottom signals are emerging.
Baijiu and Asian Spirits: Moutai to Mekong — 2026-09-28
Top developments
Double-festival sell-through down ~10%, but leaders outperform
Industry commentary puts overall Mid-Autumn/National Day baijiu sell-through (动销) at roughly a 10% year-on-year decline, with a changed buying logic around gatherings and gifting. Yet a breakdown of the data shows Kweichow Moutai achieving ~20% year-on-year sell-through growth across multiple provinces, with Wuliangye also growing in Shandong, Henan and other regions. Brand differentiation, flagged by Goldman Sachs as cautious overall demand with widening gaps between brands during this year's Mid-Autumn Festival, with Moutai (600519) outperforming competitors, is now visible at the retail counter.
Moutai's sixth price adjustment of the year
Moutai has made its sixth price adjustment of 2026, with channels reported to be ordering strictly on demand as the industry pivots from pushing inventory to driving sell-through and bottle-opening rates. The dynamic pricing mechanism has kept the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai broadly stable at RMB 1,710–1,730 (Sept 7–18 readings), versus Wuliangye's Puwu at RMB 780–788 and Guojiao 1573 at RMB 825–835. At the same time, most retailers report that only Feitian's price remains firm while many other brands have fallen to "floor prices" this festival season.
Moutai's RMB 2,199 four-seasons set sells out in one minute
At the Hubei Maoyou Carnival on September 22, Moutai launched four "Spring Summer Autumn Winter" cultural-expression bottlings, priced at RMB 2,199, which sold out on the i-Moutai platform within one minute of the 20:09 listing; subsequent daily releases also cleared rapidly. Scarcity-driven cultural releases remain a lever for Moutai to sustain pricing power while mainstream demand softens.
Inventories falling, sector bottoming — Huachuang Securities
Huachuang Securities' Mid-Autumn channel review reports that industry inventories, especially at the terminal level, are in a decline channel: terminal tobacco-and-liquor store sell-through fell by double digits in a low base period, while distributor-level sales were flat-to-slightly-down, with the National Day holiday expected to help clear stock. Over 60% of surveyed merchants said their inventories had fallen, hoping the holidays would concentrate destocking.
Wuliangye pledges RMB 20bn dividend
On September 22, Wuliangye (000858) responded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's interactive platform confirming its 2026 annual dividend would be no less than RMB 20 billion, a cash-return signal that briefly energised capital markets.
Local view
Chinese financial media describe a sector shifting from "压货" (loading channels) to "开瓶动销" (opening bottles and moving product); A-share baijiu stocks rallied on September 23, withspacer Tianyou De hitting the daily limit and Kouzijiao, ZJL (珍酒李渡), Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gong also rising before easing by the close. Consumer community posts on smzdm argue young drinkers are not rejecting baijiu outright but simply haven't reached the drinking stage, framing the sector as in an "inventory repair cycle". Regarding youth-focused low-proof products, commentary notes the push into 26–29° young-drinker baijiu is an industry-wide anxiety-driven strategy; Fenjiu is reported as the first to actually break into the youth segment where Moutai failed.
Context & numbers
- Feitian Moutai wholesale price: RMB 1,710–1,730 (Sept 7–18); Puwu RMB 780–788; Guojiao 1573 RMB 825–835
- Overall double-festival sell-through: down ~10% YoY; Moutai up ~20% in many provinces
- National baijiu sales volume has fallen from a 2016 peak of over 13 million kl to roughly 4 million kl under current standards, with high-end white spirits totalling only ~110,000 tonnes as far back as 2014 — noting this piece is a longer-run published trend explainer
- Wuliangye 2026 annual dividend commitment: ≥ RMB 20 billion
- On the international stage: Singapore's craft distillery Distillius won six awards including a Gold for its Arveau Aperitif at the 2026 Asia World Spirits Competition
On the radar
- National Day (Oct 1) sell-through data: Huachuang expects the holiday to concentrate destocking; watch whether terminal inventories keep falling
- Batch prices for the peak season weeks after mid-September — whether Moutai's dynamic pricing holds the RMB 1,700+ floor
- Continued scarcity releases on i-Moutai following the one-minute sell-out of the four-seasons set
- Fenjiu's youth-segment momentum and further low-proof launches, flagged by observers as the maturing young-drinker track
Note: No Vietnam- or Thailand-specific spirits news published after 2026-09-21 was found in this week's research beyond the Asia World Spirits Competition result; coverage of the Mekong region returns next issue.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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