Fine Wine Market: En Primeur, Liv-ex and Auctions — 2026-09-27
This week's fine wine news is dominated by a sober assessment of Bordeaux's structural crisis from consultant Stéphane Derenoncourt, and a bold projection that a fine wine shortage could emerge by 2028. Burgundy's 2026 harvest verdict — lower quantities but "remarkable" quality — signals potential supply-driven price pressure ahead. Meanwhile, a September Vinum market report flags unusual attention on the fine wine asset class from mainstream investors.
Fine Wine Market: En Primeur, Liv-ex and Auctions — 2026-09-27
Top developments
Derenoncourt: "60% of Bordeaux properties are losing money"
In a wide-ranging interview published 26 September in Le Figaro's wine section, Stéphane Derenoncourt — consultant and vigneron at Domaine de l'A on the right bank — claimed that 60% of Bordeaux properties are in the red and that "a large number of châteaux are for sale." He cites collapsing demand, obsolete commercial and distribution tools, and image problems. The diagnosis underscores the pressure on future en primeur release pricing: distressed estates have less room to hold firm on prices, yet further cuts deepen the region's credibility problem with négociants and collectors.
Could a fine wine shortage hit by 2028?
The Drinks Business's Bordeaux correspondent Colin Hay published (six days ago) a projection that the fine wine market could face a supply-demand rebalancing — even a shortage — around 2028, following years of reduced production and back-catalogue drawdown amid the market slump. If correct, today's depressed Liv-ex levels would look like the trough of the cycle, shaping how traders position in current vintages and back vintages alike.
Burgundy 2026: smaller crop, "remarkable" quality
On Wednesday 23 September in Beaune, the Comité des vins de Bourgogne delivered its harvest verdict: the 2026 Burgundy vintage will be "in retreat in quantity" but quality is "remarkable," with early harvests producing what it called "an explosion of flavours." Tight Burgundy supply has historically supported price firmness at the Hospices de Beaune and on the secondary market — a potential tailwind for the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 heading into the 166th Hospices sale on 15 November 2026.
Michael Burry wades into fine wine
Vinum's September Fine Wine Market Report (published about a week ago) notes that famed US investor Dr. Michael Burry posted on his Substack about the fine wine market just as the report was finalized. Mainstream investor attention on an asset class still roughly 25–30% below its peak (per Cult Wines' 2025 review) is a notable sentiment signal, even if the market is "by no means firing on all cylinders," as Decanter put it in June.
Counterfeit wine enforcement continues in the UK
A man was arrested in September over the suspected sale of 55 counterfeit wine bottles for more than £500,000 to a single victim — part of what The Drinks Business describes as growing concern over increasingly sophisticated wine fraud targeting both fine wine and mass-market brands. Note: the arrest was reported roughly four weeks ago, just outside our strict 7-day window, but the case remains unresolved and relevant to authentication risk on secondary-market purchases.
Local view
Le Figaro's avis-vin portal is the most prominent French voice this week, giving Derenoncourt's stark assessment front-page treatment in its wine economics section — château sales, red-bleeding balance sheets and commercial obsolescence are the talking points on the Place de Bordeaux. Local Burgundy outlets (Creusot Infos) relayed the Comité des vins de Bourgogne's harvest message directly from Beaune, framing 2026 as a quality-over-quantity year.
Context & numbers
- Bordeaux crisis: 60% of properties reportedly in the red, per Derenoncourt.
- Market level: fine wine indices remain roughly 25–30% below their historical peak; last four months of 2025 saw Liv-ex 50/100 up ~2.5% and the 1000 up ~1%.
- Burgundy 2025 auction barometer: the 165th Hospices de Beaune sale (Nov 2025) reached €18.75M hammer (€20.22M incl. fees), a top-3 all-time edition; the pièce de charité went for €400,000.
On the radar
- 166th Hospices de Beaune Vente: Sunday 15 November 2026, under the Halles; proceeds of the pièce de charité dedicated to fighting rare diseases.
- 2026 Burgundy harvest window: early picking underway; watch yield estimates for pricing implications into the Hospices sale.
- 2028 shortage thesis: Colin Hay's rebalancing projection — rumor/analysis at this stage, but worth tracking against Liv-ex supply data.
- Burry's fine wine commentary: if the Substack post sparks wider financial-media coverage, sentiment effects on the Liv-ex exchange could follow.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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