Luxury Groups: LVMH, Kering, Hermès, Richemont, Prada — 2026-09-27
European luxury equities remain under heavy pressure, with LVMH and Hermès down roughly 37% this year and CAC 40 luxury names down over 50% from their highs, as analysts including RBC, Berenberg and Bank of America warn that a sector rebound is slipping further away. China demand continues to deteriorate, forcing brands to lean on US spending, while some Italian houses — Brunello Cucinelli and Moncler — stand out as resilient exceptions.
Luxury Groups: LVMH, Kering, Hermès, Richemont, Prada — 2026-09-27
Top developments
RBC and Berenberg cut luxury forecasts; LVMH and Burberry downgraded
On September 25, RBC and Berenberg issued cautionary sector notes, flagging downside risks to earnings and uncertainty over US consumption. LVMH and Burberry were downgraded, and analysts reduced 2027 EPS estimates for Kering, Moncler, Hermès and Swatch. The moves matter ahead of LVMH's Q3 sales print, with market pessimism growing about third-quarter revenue.
BoF: luxury shares "mostly suffering" — but Richemont keeps climbing
A Business of Fashion analysis published around September 25 notes that LVMH and Kering have erased their post-pandemic share-price gains, while Hermès has also taken a knock as investors question prospects for a rebound. Richemont stands out as the exception, with its stock's climb showing no sign of letting up — underscoring a two-speed sector where hard luxury (jewellery) is outperforming fashion.
China demand deteriorates; brands shutter stores and rely on US
France 24 (September 24) examined why LVMH no longer dominates luxury in China, with sales tumbling on weaker purchasing power and a dented brand image amid a historic sector slowdown. A separate report noted Louis Vuitton, Gucci and Rolex are cutting stores in major Chinese cities as wealthy consumers cut back. Bloomberg similarly observed that fashion brands are now reliant on US spending as China's slowdown persists.
Italian houses resilient: Cucinelli confirms guidance, Bernstein upgrades Moncler
Il Sole 24 Ore reported that at Piazza Affari, Brunello Cucinelli confirmed its 2026 growth estimates, while Bernstein raised its rating on Moncler. Analysts covering the Milan fashion week period remain positive on Moncler and Cucinelli even as their shares stay under pressure.
Portfolio reshuffling in the downturn: sell, postpone, buy
AdL Mag (September 25) framed the 2026 luxury crisis through M&A: LVMH is offloading Marc Jacobs and Patou, Kering has postponed the Valentino deal, and Prada is relaunching Versace — a sign groups are prioritising portfolio focus over expansion.
Local view
French financial media are asking retail investors whether to average down or cut losses: Le Figaro Patrimoine et Bourse (September 26) answered reader questions on what to do with LVMH and Hermès shares bought at the start of the year. Also in France, Capital and Moneyvox both framed luxury stocks as trading at pivotal levels after declines exceeding 50%, asking experts whether the sector is investable. In Italy, Websim asked whether the sector is in "crisis or normalisation," noting crowded boutiques during Milan fashion week contrast with a stock market telling a normalisation story.
Context & numbers
- LVMH and Hermès have lost about 37% in share value in 2026, according to BFM Bourse.
- CAC 40 heavyweights LVMH, Hermès and Kering are down more than 50% per Moneyvox's expert survey.
- Global luxury spending reached €1,443 billion in 2025 and is on a path of gradual stabilisation in 2026, per the Bain-Altagamma spring update.
On the radar
- LVMH's third-quarter sales release is the key catalyst, with analysts (notably RBC) telling clients not to position ahead of it.
- Paris Fashion Week continues, with analysts watching whether catwalk buzz can translate into demand for struggling fashion brands.
- Kering's postponed Valentino acquisition timeline remains a rumour-level watch item flagged in Italian trade coverage.
- Rumours (flagged as such) persist about further store rationalisation in China among mega-brands.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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