Luxury Groups: LVMH, Kering, Hermès, Richemont, Prada — 2026-09-02
Luxury sector analysts are split on the durability of the recent rebound, with Deutsche Bank downgrading its outlook for LVMH and Kering due to valuation concerns and weak organic growth. Meanwhile, new market forecasts project the global personal luxury goods market will reach $737 billion by 2030, driven by affluent Asian demand and digital commerce, even as China’s tax crackdown continues to dampen high-net-worth spending.
Luxury Groups: LVMH, Kering, Hermès, Richemont, Prada — 2026-09-02
Top developments
Deutsche Bank Cuts Conviction on LVMH and Kering
In a sector note published recently, Deutsche Bank analysts described the thesis of a robust luxury rebound as "less convincing," specifically citing LVMH’s slow recovery in organic growth. The bank also labeled Kering’s current valuation as "demanding" (exigeante), reflecting skepticism about the group's ability to turnaround Gucci quickly enough to justify its stock price. This cautious stance contrasts with other analysts who view LVMH as one of the sector’s cheapest stocks relative to peers, trading at a 25% discount.
Global Luxury Market Forecast Hits $737 Billion by 2030
A new market research report released on September 2, 2026, projects that the global personal luxury goods market will grow to $737.38 billion by 2030. The study highlights that opportunities are increasingly centered on affluent Asian demand, AI-driven personalization, and sustainable materials, with key players like LVMH, Kering, and Richemont identified as central to this expansion.
Hermès Maintains Strong Stock Performance
Hermès International continues to hold firm in the markets, backed by a market capitalization of approximately $272.9 billion as of late August 2026. Recent half-year reviews indicate that the brand’s sales remain strong, supported by its supply-constrained model and affluent clientele, distinguishing it from peers facing sharper demand fluctuations.
Local view
France: French financial media is closely watching the divergence between stock performance and fundamental results. Tradingsat highlights the tension between Deutsche Bank’s cautious stance on LVMH and Kering versus the broader market hope for a sector-wide recovery. Meanwhile, Carnets du Luxe provides a detailed breakdown of the first-half 2026 results for LVMH, Kering, Richemont, and Prada, noting that while some groups show cracks, others like Richemont are gaining momentum in jewelry.
Italy: Italian financial press reports that Italian luxury houses are outperforming some competitors in the most recent quarter. MilanoFinanza notes that the Prada group and Brunello Cucinelli showed strong resilience, with Prada posting significant gains compared to foreign competitors, while the Zegna family’s stock wealth remains a key focus in the "Paperoni di Borsa" rankings. Investing.com Italy highlights Zegna’s upcoming earnings test amid the broader luxury slowdown.
Context & numbers
- LVMH H1 2026 Revenue: €38.64 billion, with organic growth accelerating to +3% in Q2.
- Richemont Q2 Sales: Rose 20% at constant exchange rates, with Jewelry Maisons growing 24%.
- Hermès H1 2026 Revenue: Grew 6% at constant exchange rates.
- China Luxury Sales: Dropped more than 10% in July for the top 25 labels due to tax crackdowns on offshore wealth.
- LVMH Operating Margin: Held high at 22.5% for the first half of 2026.
On the radar
- Zegna Earnings Release: Investors are awaiting Zegna’s upcoming quarterly results to gauge the health of the Italian luxury segment.
- Gucci Pricing Strategy: Following price reductions on specific items like the Mercato bag, analysts are watching to see if other brands will follow suit to recapture aspirational shoppers.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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