Luxury Groups: LVMH, Kering, Hermès, Richemont, Prada — 2026-09-20
LVMH shares have plummeted to a three-year low, shedding 54% from their 2023 peak amid a severe luxury downturn driven by Chinese demand collapse and middle-class retreat. While Italian houses like Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli show resilience with positive stock movements, analysts warn that the sector's second-half outlook remains challenging due to persistent weakness in key markets.
Luxury Groups: LVMH, Kering, Hermès, Richemont, Prada — 2026-09-20
Top developments
LVMH exits top 10 European market caps after historic slide
LVMH shares have fallen approximately 54% from their 2023 peak, causing the group to drop out of the top 10 most valuable European companies by market capitalization. The decline is attributed to a combination of slowing demand in China, conflict in the Middle East, and price hikes that have alienated middle-class shoppers. This valuation reset places LVMH at roughly 18x earnings, the lowest multiple since 2018, prompting some investors to view it as a potential value entry point despite the negative momentum.
Italian luxury stocks rally on improved sentiment and guidance
In contrast to the broader European slump, Italian luxury names Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli saw positive stock performance on Milan’s Piazza Affari, with Moncler receiving an upgraded rating from Bernstein. Brunello Cucinelli shares rose as the company confirmed its 2026 growth estimates following a strong first half, closing at EUR 78.54 on September 17. Analysts suggest these stocks are benefiting from specific brand strength and better visibility on guidance compared to the broader sector's uncertainty.
Analysts warn of difficult H2 2026 due to China deterioration
Financial media reports indicate that several analysts are warning that the third quarter and second half of 2026 will be difficult for the luxury sector, with LVMH and Hermès shares already down 37% year-to-date. The primary driver cited is a "deterioration in China," where consumer confidence remains fragile and spending by the wealthy has decreased significantly. This sentiment contrasts with earlier hopes for a recovery, suggesting the sector may not see meaningful organic growth acceleration until late 2026 or 2027.
Global luxury market shows slight positive turn in H1 2026
Despite the stock market turmoil, the broader luxury market recorded a modest return to growth in the first half of 2026, with revenues rising by 0.6% compared to a 12.4% decline in the same period of 2025. Personal luxury goods specifically grew by 0.9%, indicating a stabilization phase rather than a robust recovery. This data suggests that while consumer spending is stabilizing, the disconnect between market fundamentals and equity valuations remains wide, driven by fears of future slowdowns.
Local view
France (BFM Bourse/Capital.fr): French financial outlets are focusing heavily on whether luxury stocks have hit a "charnière" (pivot) point. Capital.fr questions if the current low valuations offer a buying opportunity, noting that LVMH, Hermès, and Kering are trading at levels not seen since the pandemic era. Moneyvox highlights that these heavyweights of the CAC 40 index have dropped more than 50%, creating significant drag on the Paris bourse.
Italy (Il Sole 24 ORE): Italian media highlights the divergence between the struggling French giants and the resilient Italian players. Il Sole 24 ORE notes that while the European luxury sector was weak, Moncler and Cucinelli bucked the trend, with Cucinelli confirming its growth guidance which reassured investors. The narrative focuses on "Made in Italy" brands maintaining pricing power and demand better than their French counterparts.
Context & numbers
- LVMH Valuation: Down 54% from 2023 peak; exited top 10 European market caps.
- Year-to-Date Performance: LVMH and Hermès shares down ~37% in 2026.
- Sector Revenue: Global luxury revenue +0.6% in H1 2026 (vs -12.4% in H1 2025).
- Brunello Cucinelli: Share price EUR 78.54 (Sept 17, 2026); ~19.2% below average analyst target.
- China Impact: Sales at top 25 luxury labels in China dropped >10% in July (contextual background for current H2 warnings).
On the radar
- Q3 Earnings Season: Investors are awaiting Q3 results from key players to confirm if the "deterioration" in China mentioned by analysts is reflected in reported numbers, particularly for LVMH's Fashion & Leather Goods division.
- Bernstein Rating Changes: Watch for further rating adjustments from major brokers like Bernstein, which recently upgraded Moncler but remains cautious on the broader sector.
- US vs China Demand Shift: Reports indicate US spending is becoming the primary reliance for fashion brands as China slows, potentially shifting geographic sales mix expectations for Q4.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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