Swiss Watches, Rolex Market and High Jewellery — 2026-10-25

Top developments

Swiss Exports Rebound with 11.7% Growth in September

Swiss watch exports increased by 11.7% in September 2026, continuing a recovery trend that has seen four consecutive months of growth. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) reported that the total value of exports in September reached CHF 2.628 billion, driven largely by strong performance in the US market despite ongoing tariff volatility. While the headline number is positive, analysts note that the growth is partly a statistical rebound against a weak September 2025 baseline, and unit volumes remain significantly lower than historical averages.

Secondary Market Divergence: Cartier Hits Record, Rolex Stalls

The secondary market for luxury watches is showing distinct polarization. According to recent data, resale prices for Cartier watches reached a record high, while Rolex secondary market prices have stalled. This divergence is occurring against a backdrop of a 19% increase in the number of listings for luxury watches, which may cap future retail price increases as supply becomes more abundant. The WatchCharts Overall Market Index has remained relatively flat, indicating that while ultra-luxury brands like Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet maintain strong demand, the broader luxury segment faces inventory pressure.

Geneva Watch Auctions Preview: Independence and Rarity Take Center Stage

The upcoming Fall 2026 Geneva Watch Auctions, scheduled for November, are expected to highlight a shift toward independent horology. Phillips, Christie’s, and Sotheby’s are featuring lots that emphasize provenance and independent craftsmanship, with rare Rolex chronographs and one-of-a-kind pieces from independent makers like Lange. This follows a trend seen in the May 2026 auctions where independent watchmakers achieved record results, challenging the dominance of traditional giants. The compressed schedule this year, overlapping with the Grand Prix d’Horlogerie de Genève on November 7, is expected to draw significant collector interest.

Luxury Stocks Under Pressure Despite Export Growth

Shares of major luxury watch conglomerates Richemont and Swatch Group faced significant downward pressure at the close of the week, reflecting broader sector concerns despite the positive export data. Investors appear to be factoring in the long-term structural challenges of the industry, including the shift toward high-margin ultra-luxury segments at the expense of volume. RBC analysts noted that while the export data is positive for Swatch Group, the stock remains volatile amid broader luxury sector weakness.

Local view

Swiss Media Debate Export Statistics Accuracy

Swiss public broadcaster SRF has raised questions about the accuracy of recent export statistics, specifically regarding a "mysterious" surge in watch deliveries to France. The report suggests that hundreds of millions of francs in exports were recorded in a way that may distort the true demand picture, prompting debate among industry stakeholders about the transparency of current tracking methods.

French-Language Press Highlights Independent Horology

Le Temps, a leading Swiss French newspaper, reported on the growing dominance of independent watchmakers in the secondary market. The article notes that young, independent horologists are increasingly matching or exceeding the auction results of established brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe, driven by collector demand for rarity and artistic independence.

Context & numbers

• Export Growth: Swiss watch exports rose 11.7% in September 2026 year-on-year.
• Export Value: Total export value in September was CHF 2.628 billion.
• YTD Performance: Swiss watch exports are up 2.7% year-to-date after nine months of 2026.
• Inventory Levels: Luxury watch listings on the secondary market increased by 19%, potentially limiting price growth.
• Market Share: Rolex continues to dominate with 32-33.2% of the global Swiss watch market by revenue.

On the radar

• Christie's Geneva Jewelry Auction: Scheduled for November 2026, featuring nearly 300 pieces including a rare Van Cleef & Arpels brooch and a 14.63-carat pink diamond.
• Lab-Grown Diamond Impact: The luxury briefing reports that lab-grown diamonds are splitting the market, with Richemont's potential interest in De Beers signaling a strategic shift in how luxury houses approach diamond sourcing and pricing.
• Zenith Restructuring: LVMH-owned Zenith is cutting half of its manufacturing jobs in Switzerland and shifting focus to watches priced above €50,000 to combat market slowdowns.