Battery Metals and Rare Earths: Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt — 2026-09-02
Lithium prices in China surged to over CNY 150,000 per tonne in late August as demand outpaced supply, while US export controls on battery "black mass" and tungsten pressured Chinese recyclers. Simultaneously, Indonesia faces a potential 5-million-ton drop in nickel exports due to strict RKAB quota cuts, and Chilean lithium major SQM reported record sales volumes with a significant profit rebound.
Battery Metals and Rare Earths: Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt — 2026-09-02
Top developments
Lithium Prices Surge Amid Supply Crunch and Record EV Sales
Lithium prices in China rose to over CNY 150,000 per tonne in August, reaching a one-month high as signs of growing demand offset supply constraints. This surge is driven by record global EV sales and a tightening supply chain, with downstream buyers showing strengthened willingness to purchase near the 150,000 yuan/mt level. The price recovery has reactivated fiscal revenues for mining jurisdictions and spurred expansion plans, signaling the end of the recent bear cycle for the commodity.
US Export Controls on Battery "Black Mass" Pressure Chinese Recyclers
Washington implemented a new one-year measure reserving tungsten and battery "black mass" (recycled battery material) for domestic buyers. Analysts note that this policy pressures Chinese recyclers by limiting their access to feedstock, although limited domestic processing capacity in the US hinders efforts to fully build independent supply chains. This move is part of broader strategic efforts to decouple critical mineral supply chains from Chinese dominance.
SQM Reports Record Sales and Profit Rebound in Chile
Chilean lithium producer SQM reported a net profit of US$ 660 million in Q2 2026, exceeding market estimates, driven by a 59% growth in lithium sales volumes and better pricing. The company has raised its global lithium demand projection for 2026 to over 2.1 million tonnes and announced investments of US$ 3 billion to support expansion. This performance highlights the recovery of the Chilean lithium sector and its strategic importance to the global battery supply chain.
Indonesia's Nickel Export Quota Cuts Threaten 5 Million Ton Drop
The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce (Kadin) estimates that Indonesia’s nickel exports could fall by 3.5 to 5 million tons in 2026 due to uncertainty and strict enforcement of the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) quotas. The Association of Indonesian Nickel Miners (APNI) has recommended relaxing the production quota by 30 million tons to alleviate shortages at domestic smelters, which are currently struggling to secure sufficient raw materials despite the government's downstreaming goals.
Local view
Indonesia: Local media reports highlight the tension between government quota restrictions and industrial needs. Listrik Indonesia notes that the tightening of RKAB quotas is creating a paradox where production is limited, yet domestic smelters face raw material deficits, threatening the viability of the downstreaming industry. Media Nikel Indonesia reports that the reference mineral price (HMA) for nickel rose to US$16,960/wmt in the second period of August 2026, reflecting persistent global volatility.
Chile: La Tercera discusses public sentiment regarding the partnership between state-owned Codelco and private miner SQM. A survey by Descifra indicates that Chileans value the expansion of Codelco’s business into lithium through this alliance, seeing it as a way for the state to leverage private capabilities while maintaining national control over the resource.
Context & numbers
- Lithium Carbonate (China): Spot prices exceeded CNY 150,000/tonne in August 2026, the highest level in a month.
- Nickel Reference Price (Indonesia): HMA reached US$16,960/wmt in August Period 2, 2026.
- SQM Financials: Q2 2026 Net Profit: US$ 660 million; EBITDA: US$ 1.32 billion; Planned Investment: US$ 3 billion.
- Indonesia Nickel Export Risk: Potential reduction of 3.5–5 million tons in 2026 due to RKAB issues.
- Rare Earths Policy Status: China's October 2025 export controls on rare earths and related technologies remain suspended until November 10, 2026, following a one-year pause agreement.
On the radar
- November 10, 2026 Deadline: The suspension of China's rare earth export controls expires. Stakeholders are preparing for potential regulatory tightening if bilateral conditions deteriorate.
- Indonesian RKAB Adjustments: Watch for official government responses to APNI's recommendation to relax nickel production quotas by 30 million tons to prevent smelter feedstock crises.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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