Battery Metals and Rare Earths: Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt — 2026-10-25
Lithium prices in China have tumbled to multi-year lows as demand fears mount, while Indonesia’s coordinated production cuts by Chinese smelters triggered a sharp rally in nickel prices. Meanwhile, investors are bracing for the expiration of China’s rare-earth export pause on November 10, with no official notice of extension yet issued.
Battery Metals and Rare Earths: Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt — 2026-10-25
Top developments
China Rare-Earth Export Pause Expires Nov 10
China’s one-year pause on its October 2025 rare-earth export controls is set to legally expire on November 10, 2026, under Announcement No. 70. As of mid-October, no notice extending this pause appeared on the commerce ministry’s list, creating significant uncertainty for global supply chains. The expiration could reinstate strict licensing requirements for rare earths, impacting Western producers and downstream manufacturers reliant on Chinese inputs.
Indonesian Nickel Rally Amid Smelter Cuts
Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged by more than US$700 in just four trading sessions following reports that four major Chinese smelter companies operating in Indonesia plan to coordinate production cuts. This move, discussed in a meeting on October 20, 2026, aims to stabilize falling prices but has raised concerns about supply deficits. The Indonesian government’s 2026 RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) revisions also cap nickel production at 290 million tons, further tightening potential supply.
Lithium Prices Hit Multi-Year Lows in China
Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices in China fell to CNY 107,000 per tonne on October 14, approaching the critical support level of CNY 100,000. This represents a significant decline from the year’s high, driven by weak EV demand expectations in China and a market trading on oversupply fears. Chilean lithium prices also dropped to US$16,050 per tonne on October 20, the lowest since January, reflecting similar global demand softness.
Cobalt Supply Risks Persist in DRC and Indonesia
Despite efforts to ease shortages, the cobalt market faces persistent deficits through 2027. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s export quota system is still ramping up, leaving a backlog of un-exported material. Additionally, Indonesia’s nickel policies are creating secondary supply risks for cobalt, as the country is the second-largest miner of the metal, and output adjustments for nickel often impact cobalt by-products.
Local view
Indonesia: Hilirisasi (Downstreaming) Under Pressure Local media outlets like CNBC Indonesia and Bloomberg Technoz are highlighting the tension between Indonesia’s downstreaming policy and Chinese smelter dominance. The National Economic Council (DEN) reports that production cuts via RKAB have already lifted nickel export values by 28% to IDR 714 trillion. However, commentators argue that the coordinated cuts by Chinese firms expose Indonesia’s vulnerability to foreign investor decisions, urging the government to enforce stricter governance on downstream investments.
Chile: Lithium Tender Expansion La Tercera and Dipromin report that Chile’s Ministry of Mining plans to tender five new lithium projects in 2026, aiming to double production within a decade. This strategic move seeks to counteract current price lows by securing long-term supply commitments and attracting new investment, despite the current market downturn attributed to weaker Chinese EV sales.
Context & numbers
- Lithium Carbonate (China Spot): CNY 107,000/tonne (Oct 14 assessment).
- Lithium (Chile Spot): US$16,050/tonne (Oct 20), lowest since January.
- Nickel (LME): Rose by >US$700 in four sessions following smelter cut news.
- China Lithium Battery Exports: Jan–Sep 2026 exports grew 26.4% in volume and 42.2% in value year-on-year, with September alone seeing a 53.3% volume increase.
- Indonesia Nickel Export Value: IDR 714 trillion, up 28% due to price gains from RKAB production caps.
On the radar
- November 10, 2026: Expiration of China’s rare-earth export pause. Watch for any last-minute announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding extension or reactivation of controls.
- Indonesian Smelter Compliance: Monitor whether the four Chinese smelters actually execute the coordinated production cuts announced on Oct 20, which could lead to further nickel price volatility.
- Chile Lithium Tenders: Follow the release of terms for the five new lithium concessions expected in 2026, which could reshape South American supply dynamics.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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