Battery Metals and Rare Earths: Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt — 2026-09-18

Top developments

Chile reports record mining investment but lithium market share declines

Chile recorded a historic mining investment of US$ 15,523.6 million in 2025, a 6.8% increase from 2024, marking the highest level since data collection began in 2001. Despite this capital influx, Chile’s share of global lithium mine output fell to 19.4% in 2025, down from approximately 26% in 2020, as Australia, China, and Argentina expanded production faster. This divergence highlights the challenge for Chilean producers like SQM and Albemarle in maintaining dominance amid global oversupply.

Cochilco forecasts lithium surplus through 2028

The Chilean state copper agency Cochilco warned that a surplus in the lithium market will persist until 2028, driven by the return of idle operations, new project ramps-up, and weak domestic Chinese consumption. This outlook contradicts earlier hopes for a tight market and suggests limited upside for lithium carbonate prices in the medium term. The agency pointed to structural overcapacity as a key constraint on price recovery.

Indonesia revises nickel price formula to aid smelters

Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revised the Mineral Price Reference (HPM) formula for nickel ore to make feedstock more economical for domestic smelters. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association noted that the impact of these changes requires close monitoring. This move aims to sustain the downstream processing sector, which has seen export values jump from US$ 3.3–3.4 billion to US$ 33 billion since 2023 due to hilirisasi (downstreaming) policies.

China’s lithium carbonate spot prices fall below 140,000 yuan/mt

Spot lithium carbonate prices in China accelerated downward this week, breaking below the psychological threshold of 140,000 yuan per metric ton. Nickel sulphate prices also edged lower, while cobalt sulphate prices showed mixed movement in the hydrometallurgical recycling market. Black mass payables for pure cobalt and ternary materials fell steadily, reflecting softer demand from battery manufacturers.

Argentina projects US$ 18.5 billion in mining exports by 2030

Argentina’s mining sector closed the first half of 2026 with record external sales of US$ 4.742 billion, with lithium consolidating its position as the second most relevant mineral in exports. The government is now projecting total mining exports of US$ 18.5 billion by 2030, driven by a doubling of foreign direct investment stock over the past two years. However, industry debates continue regarding the conditions needed to sustain this boom against global price volatility.

Local view

Cochilco (Chile): The state agency emphasized that the lithium surplus is not a temporary dip but a multi-year structural issue extending to 2028, citing weak Chinese internal consumption as a primary drag on demand.

Asosiasi Penambang Nikel Indonesia (APNI): The association stated that the impact of the new nickel price formula on smelter certainty needs to be monitored closely, indicating caution among miners regarding the new regulatory framework.

Infobae (Argentina): Local economic media highlighted the tension between record current exports and the ambitious 2030 targets, noting that the "limits of the boom" are being debated within the industry as FDI stocks double.

Context & numbers

• Lithium Carbonate Price: Spot prices in China fell below 140,000 yuan/mt during the week of Sept 14–17, 2026.
• Chile Mining Investment: Record high of US$ 15,523.6 million in 2025, up 6.8% year-on-year.
• Chile Lithium Market Share: Declined to 19.4% of global output in 2025, down from ~26% in 2020.
• Argentina Mining Exports: Record US$ 4.742 billion in H1 2026; lithium is the second-largest export mineral.
• Indonesia Nickel Exports: Downstreaming policies have increased export value from ~US$ 3.3 billion to US$ 33 billion (as of 2023 baseline cited in recent policy discussions).

On the radar

• RKAB Quota Adjustments: Indonesia’s ESDM is signaling potential additional RKAB (mining work plan) quotas for PT Vale Indonesia (INCO) in 2026, contingent on compliance and performance records.
• El Niño Impact on Smelters: Analysts are monitoring potential disruptions to nickel product exports from Indonesia due to drought conditions affecting the IMIP smelter complex, which could tighten global supply.
• Sodium-Ion Competition: Continued tax breaks for sodium-ion batteries in China are keeping pressure on lithium price floors, creating a structural ceiling for recovery despite BESS demand growth.