Battery Metals and Rare Earths: Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt — 2026-09-13
Chile’s lithium market share has fallen to 19.4% as global production shifts, while Indonesian nickel revenues hit a record Rp21 trillion despite El Niño disruptions. Meanwhile, lithium equities and futures faced downward pressure this week due to ample supply and weak Chinese battery futures, contrasting with strong fiscal gains in Indonesia's nickel sector. <!-- /headline --> **Chile Loses Lithium Crown as Indonesia Nickel Revenues Soar** <!-- /headline -->
Battery Metals and Rare Earths: Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt — 2026-09-13
Chile’s lithium market share has fallen to 19.4% as global production shifts, while Indonesian nickel revenues hit a record Rp21 trillion despite El Niño disruptions. Meanwhile, lithium equities and futures faced downward pressure this week due to ample supply and weak Chinese battery futures, contrasting with strong fiscal gains in Indonesia's nickel sector.
<!-- /headline -->Chile Loses Lithium Crown as Indonesia Nickel Revenues Soar
<!-- /headline -->Top developments
Chile’s Global Lithium Share Drops to 19.4%
According to data released on September 12, 2026, Chile’s participation in global lithium production has declined from 26.03% in 2020 to 19.4% in 2025. Although Chile increased its absolute production volume during 2025, it fell to third place globally behind Australia and China as other jurisdictions expanded output faster. This shift underscores the intensifying competition for lithium supply outside the traditional "Lithium Triangle," potentially impacting long-term pricing power for Chilean producers like SQM and Albemarle.
Indonesia Nickel PNBP Hits Rp21 Trillion Amid El Niño Smelter Strains
Indonesian nickel non-tax state revenue (PNBP) reached Rp21 trillion by August 2026, doubling from previous levels despite a significant drop in ore production. Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) shows that while production volumes decreased—citing 13 million tons extracted versus higher historical benchmarks—the downstream processing ("hilirisasi") strategy has successfully captured more value per ton. However, smelters in key hubs like Morowali are facing operational challenges due to El Niño-induced droughts, which threaten future export volumes and supply stability for global battery manufacturers.
Lithium Futures and Equities Slide on Supply Glut
On September 11-12, 2026, lithium stocks including Albemarle and SQM declined as Chinese lithium carbonate futures weakened. The LIT ETF fell 2.66%, with Albemarle and SQM dropping approximately 3-4%. This correction was driven by ample supply conditions and weak demand signals from China, where carbonate prices slipped to 144,750 CNY/tonne. The divergence between rising South American production expectations and softening Chinese futures highlights ongoing volatility in the lithium price discovery mechanism.
Local view
Indonesia (Mediaindonesia/Antaranews): Local media highlight the government's success in maximizing fiscal benefits from nickel through downstreaming policies. The ESDM emphasizes that the Rp21 trillion revenue milestone proves that value-added processing is working, even as physical ore extraction quotas (RKAB) remain tight. Stakeholders are watching closely how El Niño weather patterns will affect smelter water availability and subsequent nickel matte exports.
Chile (Radio Maray): Atacama-region media report on the strategic concern regarding Chile's sliding market share. The narrative focuses on the need for accelerated expansion and policy support to regain ground against Australia and China, framing the 19.4% share figure as a warning sign for national resource sovereignty and economic dependency.
Context & numbers
- Lithium Prices: Chinese battery-grade lithium carbonate traded around 144,750 CNY/tonne as of mid-September 2026, reflecting a slight decline amid ample supply.
- Nickel Revenue: Indonesia’s nickel sector generated Rp21 trillion in non-tax state revenue by August 2026, driven by higher prices and downstream value addition rather than raw ore volume increases.
- Production Share: Chile’s share of global lithium production dropped to 19.4% in 2025, down from 26% in 2020.
- Market Sentiment: Lithium equities (SQM, Albemarle) fell 3-4% in the week ending September 11, 2026, diverging from some regional spot price resilience but aligning with weak futures.
On the radar
- El Niño Impact on Indonesia: Continued monitoring of drought conditions in Sulawesi and Maluku, which could further constrain nickel smelter output and force adjustments to 2026 export quotas.
- China Lithium Inventory Levels: Analysts are watching for official inventory data releases from China, which could confirm whether the current price dip is a short-term correction or the start of a longer downtrend.
- DRC Cobalt Quotas: While not the primary focus of this week's headlines, the DRC's export quota regime remains a background risk factor for cobalt supply chains, with any changes in enforcement potentially causing rapid price spikes.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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