Battery Metals and Rare Earths: Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt — 2026-09-10
Zimbabwe has halted raw lithium exports, intensifying the global race for critical mineral supply chains, while China’s rare earth exports remained suppressed in August due to ongoing export control regimes. Meanwhile, El Niño-induced droughts in Indonesia are threatening nickel smelter output, and a methodology change in Chinese data has caused confusion and price volatility in the lithium market.
Battery Metals and Rare Earths: Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt — 2026-09-10
Zimbabwe Halts Raw Lithium Exports to Boost Domestic Processing
On September 8, 2026, Zimbabwe announced an immediate halt to raw lithium exports, aiming to force local processing and strengthen its position in the global battery supply chain. This move aligns with broader African efforts to move up the value chain, challenging the dominance of Chinese refiners who currently process the majority of global lithium. The ban is expected to tighten spot supply of spodumene concentrate, potentially supporting lithium prices in the short term as buyers scramble for alternative sources from Australia and South America.
China’s August Rare Earth Exports Drop 18.2% Year-on-Year
China shipped 4,735 metric tons of rare earths in August 2026, a figure that is 18.2% lower than the same month in 2025 and below the year-to-date monthly average. This decline reflects the lingering impact of export controls introduced in late 2025 and subsequent regulatory tightening, which have constrained output despite high global demand for magnets used in EVs and wind turbines. The sustained suppression of exports keeps pressure on Western automakers to accelerate non-Chinese supply chain development.
El Niño Drought Threatens Indonesian Nickel Smelter Output
Indonesian nickel exports for 2026 face potential declines as El Niño-driven droughts reduce water availability for hydroelectric power, impacting smelter operations at major industrial parks like IMIP in Morowali. Local reports indicate that production at some facilities has dropped by up to 40%, with nickel prices projected to move toward $17,000–$18,000 per tonne as supply risks mount. This supply-side constraint contrasts with earlier expectations of oversupply, potentially stabilizing nickel prices after a prolonged slump.
Lithium Market Confounded by Data Methodology Change
A surprise surge in reported lithium stockpile data in China, resulting from a change in statistical methodology, has confused traders and weighed on lithium prices this week. The revised data suggests higher inventory levels than previously estimated, prompting calls for authorities to clarify the new metrics to restore market confidence. This volatility comes as battery-grade lithium carbonate prices hover above CNY 150,000 per tonne, reflecting a complex interplay between genuine supply tightness and statistical noise.
Local view
In Indonesia, local media outlets like Telisik.id and Bloomberg Technoz are highlighting the severe impact of El Niño on nickel infrastructure, with reports of significant production cuts at smelters in Morowali. Stakeholders are concerned about the reliability of power supplies and the potential for long-term damage to Indonesia's downstreaming strategy if drought conditions persist. Meanwhile, in Chile, Rumbo Minero notes that SQM’s strong Q2 earnings, driven by a 59% increase in lithium sales volumes, signal a robust recovery in demand, even as local equity markets show mixed reactions to global price fluctuations.
Context & numbers
- Lithium Prices: Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices in China rose to over CNY 150,000 per tonne in early September 2026, up significantly from the June 2025 bottom of ~$8,100/tonne.
- Rare Earth Exports: China’s August 2026 rare earth exports totaled 4,735 metric tons, down 18.2% year-on-year.
- Nickel Production: Smelter production in Indonesia’s IMIP zone has reportedly fallen by 40% due to drought-related power issues, pushing nickel price projections toward $17,000–$18,000/tonne.
- Cobalt Dynamics: Cobalt prices are sliding as DRC exports pick up under new quota regimes, testing Kinshasa’s ability to control prices after a recent rally.
On the radar
- Sept 24 Deadline: Investors are watching September 24, 2026, as a critical date related to the expiration or review of China’s suspended export control packages, which could trigger renewed volatility in rare earth and lithium markets.
- Xi-Trump Meeting: A planned meeting between US and Chinese leaders in Washington is expected to dominate sentiment, with critical minerals likely to be a key negotiation point.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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