São Paulo Stocks: Ibovespa, Petrobras and Vale — 2026-10-24
Brazil's Ibovespa navigated a volatile week ahead of the presidential runoff, oscillating between gains driven by Petrobras and Vale and losses triggered by global risk-off sentiment and election uncertainty. The Brazilian real fluctuated around the R$5.00 mark, while investors digested key inflation data and bank earnings.
São Paulo Stocks: Ibovespa, Petrobras and Vale — 2026-10-24
Top developments
Ibovespa Rises Ahead of Runoff
On Friday, October 23, the Ibovespa closed up 0.47% at 205,083 points, marking a rebound after two consecutive days of losses. The Brazilian real appreciated, closing at R$4.993 against the US dollar, as investors positioned themselves before the Sunday runoff. The market's movement was viewed by analysts as technical, with the index moving against the trend of New York and European exchanges.
Global Selloff and Election Nerves Hit Markets
The index fell 1.15% to 204,120 on Thursday, October 22, amid a global technology sell-off and rising election nerves. The Nasdaq slid 2.6%, while Brent crude jumped to US$109, pushing Latin American markets lower. The real weakened to R$5.038 as risk aversion increased following a Datafolha poll showing a technical tie between candidates.
Petrobras and Vale Support Index
Despite the broader market volatility, Petrobras shares held up on October 22, supported by higher oil prices. On October 23, Petrobras and Vale stocks rose, helping to limit the Ibovespa's downside against weaker bank stocks. Earlier in the week, on October 19, Petrobras had fallen 2.8% as the index slipped 0.17%.
Inflation Data and Bank Earnings
Investors reacted to the October IPCA-15 inflation preview, which showed a significant slowdown, and Bradesco's quarterly results. The inflation data influenced expectations for future interest rate cuts, while Bradesco's performance pressured its shares, impacting the broader index.
Local view
Local media highlighted the stability of the index despite political uncertainty. Valor Econômico reported that the Ibovespa remained stable on October 23, with gains in Petrobras and Vale offsetting declines in Bradesco. The outlet noted that electoral uncertainty continued to pressure future interest rates, penalizing domestic cyclicals.
Infomoney emphasized that the dollar fell below R$5.00 on the last session before the election, as investors digested the IPCA-15 data and recent polls. The outlet pointed out that the technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro increased caution, particularly before key debates and final campaign events.
Context & numbers
- Ibovespa Close (Oct 23): 205,083 points (+0.47%)
- USD/BRL Close (Oct 23): R$4.993
- Ibovespa Close (Oct 22): 204,120 points (-1.15%)
- USD/BRL Close (Oct 22): R$5.038
- Brent Crude: Jumped to US$109 on October 22
On the radar
- Presidential Runoff: The second-round vote takes place on Sunday, October 25, with markets closed. Investors are bracing for potential volatility on Monday depending on the outcome.
- Copom Decision: The next Central Bank of Brazil monetary policy meeting is upcoming, with markets watching for signals on whether the Selic rate will be cut from its current 13.75%.
- Fiscal Proposals: Market euphoria has been restrained by uncertainty over the fiscal proposals of both presidential candidates, keeping the Ibovespa and real in a narrow range.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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