São Paulo Stocks: Ibovespa, Petrobras and Vale — 2026-09-26
The Ibovespa logged a second straight negative week, closing Friday down 0.27% at 183,476.86 points as Petrobras fell with retreating oil prices and election polls kept investors cautious. The week was marked by daily losses across the board — down 0.86% Wednesday, 0.99% Thursday — while the real weakened to 5.19 per dollar. Copom minutes showed the Selic has now been cut five times in a row to 13.75%, and economists lowered their year-end 2026 Selic forecasts.
São Paulo Stocks: Ibovespa, Petrobras and Vale — 2026-09-26
Top developments
Friday close: second straight losing week
For the Thursday–Friday sessions, the Ibovespa fell 0.99% on Thursday as banks and miners slipped, with the real weakening to 5.1928 per dollar. On Friday the index fell a lighter 0.27% to 183,476.86 points, supported by Vale, banks and large utilities while Petrobras shares tumbled with oil prices — ending the week lower. Local press framed the Friday close as the second consecutive negative week, with the dollar pulling back in the latest session.
Vale slips on weak Chinese steel demand
Iron ore proxies fell on September 23, with Vale losing 2.61% to US$13.82 (and Rio Tinto down 2.30%) as Chinese steel demand showed no recovery. In Thursday's session Vale again lost about 1% as higher freight costs pressured Brazil's iron ore exports. For the Ibovespa, Vale's pullback removed one of the few defensive supports the index had left, compounding the blue-chip weakness.
Petrobras in focus: oil slide and election risk
Petrobras was the main drag on Wednesday's open and again on Friday, with Reuters noting the Ibovespa opened lower "pressed mainly by Petrobras, amid the decline of oil prices abroad," while investors also digested a new election poll. On Thursday, Valor noted Petrobras shares initially helped steady the index as US-Iran tensions lifted oil, but news that countries were studying a gradual de-escalation involving a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pared the commodity's gains. Petrobras's swings are currently the single biggest driver of index direction.
Copom minutes: fifth straight Selic cut to 13.75%
The latest Copom minutes show the committee cut the Selic by a quarter point, from 14% to 13.75% a year — the fifth consecutive cut, leaving rates 1.25 points below the 15% held until March 2026 — while stating inflation is still demand-driven and urging "serenity and caution." Bloomberg reported on September 21 that Brazilian economists lowered their 2026 year-end Selic forecast following the cut. Markets will watch Friday's IPCA-15 inflation print and its effect on rate bets for the next meeting.
Foreign flows, fiscal risk and Goldman's Brazil call
Estadão reported foreign investors have accumulated a net inflow of R$ 23.9 billion into the B3 in 2026, despite a withdrawal of R$ 689.6 million in the September 17 session. Separately, Brazil widened its 2026 primary deficit forecast to US$ 15.61 billion, keeping fiscal concerns on the table. CNBC reported Goldman Sachs has a buy rating on a Brazilian banking name that stands to benefit from U.S. expansion — a rare upbeat note amid a defensive week.
Local view
Local-language coverage is dominated by election and oil sensitivity. InfoMoney's live blogs tracked daily declines with the real and dollar moving on the election and exterior, noting Vale losing 1% in Thursday's session. Forbes called the recent trading "contaminated by risk," with strong oil gains on supply threats, a rising dollar on the electoral scenario and the Ibovespa closing lower as it weighed fiscal fears and rising global Treasury yields. O Povo credited the Friday session's Vale/banks/utilities gains as a partial offset to the Petrobras tumble, with light financial turnover.
Context & numbers
- Ibovespa closes: 185,814 points on September 23 (−0.86%); −0.99% on September 24; 183,476.86 points on September 25 (−0.27%), per multiple wraps.
- USD/BRL: the real weakened 1.36% to 5.1703 on September 23, and to 5.1928 by September 24.
- Foreign net inflows into B3 in 2026: R$ 23.9 billion year-to-date through September.
- Selic: 13.75% after the fifth consecutive 25bp cut; 2026 primary deficit forecast widened to US$ 15.61 billion.
On the radar
- Friday's IPCA-15 inflation print and its impact on Copom Selic bets — flagged as the key open in local morning calls.
- New election poll readings: local press says investors are tracking fresh polling closely ahead of next month's presidential election (per Reuters/InfoMoney).
- Oil prices around the US$ 100+ level and any de-escalation or escalation headlines on the Strait of Hormuz, which directly swing Petrobras.
- Chinese steel demand data — the driver behind Vale's recent 2.61% drop on iron ore proxies.
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