Toronto Stocks: TSX, Energy and Banks Daily — 2026-10-24
The S&P/TSX Composite Index faced significant volatility this week, dropping more than 400 points as gold, metals, and technology shares slid amid a global AI sell-off and hot US inflation data. However, energy stocks provided a cushion, with oil prices surging to five-month highs due to geopolitical tensions. Analysts highlight that while banks remain a core market theme, tariff-related policy shifts and upcoming Bank of Canada decisions are key drivers for the Canadian market's near-term trajectory.
Toronto Stocks: TSX, Energy and Banks Daily — 2026-10-24
TSX Slides on AI Fears and Inflation Data
On Wednesday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped more than 1% as a slide in gold and base metals, combined with losses in technology and energy shares, pressured the broader market. Celestica plunged 9.2% alongside US chipmakers, reflecting global concerns about the AI trade. A hot US inflation report also weighed on lender stocks, with banks and gold miners contributing to the index's decline of nearly 400 points.
Energy Sector Boosted by Oil Surge
Despite the broader market weakness, the energy sector showed resilience, with oil prices topping US$100 per barrel. This surge was driven by Houthi attacks and a marée noire (oil spill), pushing crude to its highest level since April. The higher oil prices supported Canadian energy stocks, helping to cushion some of the broader market sell-off.
Government Tariff Shield and Steel Sector Outlook
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a C$8.7 billion plan to bolster the steel, auto, and critical mineral sectors in response to US trade tariffs. Analysts suggest that this government support could significantly benefit specific TSX stocks, with one steel-related stock potentially seeing a 73% boost from the combined federal and provincial (Ontario) aid. A think tank report also labeled Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum a "disaster" for the US economy, highlighting the complex cross-border impact.
Bank of Canada Rate Path in Focus
The Bank of Canada has maintained its overnight rate at 2.25% for seven consecutive months as of the last decision in September. Markets are now bracing for the next rate decision, with investors watching data closely to determine if the central bank will pivot given the current inflation pressures and economic signals. The 2026 outlook suggests that while energy and financials are leading, risks remain regarding rate sensitivity and economic growth.
Local view
Local French-language media outlets such as Les Affaires and Boursorama reported on the TSX reaching a four-week high earlier in the week before the subsequent decline. Les Affaires tracked the daily winners and losers, noting the mixed performance driven by commodity prices. Boursorama highlighted how the TSX's movement was heavily influenced by the interplay between rising oil prices and falling gold prices, as well as investor reactions to government support measures for domestic industries.
Context & numbers
- TSX Performance: The S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped 0.97% on the most recent close, following a 1.11% drop earlier in the week.
- Oil Prices: WTI crude oil surged by $3, closing at its highest level since April due to supply concerns.
- Bank Returns: Year-to-date returns for major banks remain strong, with Royal Bank of Canada showing 22.1% YTD and Toronto-Dominion Bank at 36.7%.
- Policy: Canada unveiled a C$8.7 billion (or C$6.2 billion in some reports focusing on specific industrial protections) plan to shield manufacturers from US tariffs.
On the radar
- US Tariff Adjustments: The US has announced it will lift tariffs on some Canadian goods starting October 30, while placing tariffs on others like carpets, ahead of midterm elections. This shift could impact trade-exposed sectors differently.
- Bank of Canada Decision: The next rate decision is imminent, with markets watching for signals on whether the 2.25% overnight rate will be held or adjusted in response to recent inflation data.
- AI Sector Volatility: Continued volatility in US tech and AI-related stocks, such as Celestica and Super Micro, remains a key risk factor for the TSX's tech-heavy components.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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