Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-09-23
Chip equities snapped back this week: Taiwan's TAIEX hit a record above 48,000 points on heavy foreign buying of the AI supply chain, while Samsung's HBM4 yield progress narrowed its gap with SK hynix to 17 percentage points. ASML's push with TSMC, Nvidia, Intel, Samsung and SK hynix to adapt High-NA EUV kept the equipment theme in focus, even as foreign investors dumped over ₩10 trillion of Korean chip shares earlier in the month.
Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-09-23
Top developments
Samsung narrows HBM gap with SK hynix to 17 points
Samsung Electronics' HBM4 production yields, below 60% early in mass production, have stabilized near the 80% "golden yield" zone, giving the company confidence to expand supply. That lifted Samsung's HBM market share gap with SK hynix from 37 to 17 percentage points, per Seoul Economic Daily. For the memory trade, it means real second-source competition for Nvidia's HBM4 qualification cycle.
Bernstein analysis adds that Samsung's August HBM growth momentum overtook SK hynix for the month, per Korean-language reporting on Investing.com — a fresh data point advisers weighing Samsung versus SK hynix exposure should note. Meanwhile top-performing retail investors at Mirae Asset were net buying SK hynix, betting on the memory cycle improvement.
Taiwan hits record highs; foreign money sweeps the AI packaging chain
Taiwan's weighted index touched an all-time intraday high of 48,601 on Sept. 22, closing up 1.14% at 47,719 on turnover above NT$1 trillion. Foreign investors bought a single-day NT$45.32 billion, concentrated in the three ABF substrate makers, MediaTek, and the advanced-packaging supply chain, TechNews reported, aided by AMD's run as well as SOX strength. On Sept. 23 the index rose another 357 points to 48,157, with TSMC closing up 1.63% at T$2,500.
UBS raises CoWoS capacity forecasts — an 11-stock Taiwan buy list
UBS's latest note says demand for TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging is running well ahead of prior estimates. It now sees CoWoS monthly capacity reaching 270,000 wafers by end-2027 versus a previous 260,000, versus 160,000 at end-2026, and argues CoWoS remains irreplaceable for large AI accelerators even as Intel's EMIB-T and TSMC's COPOS ramp. UBS put out buy calls on 11 Taiwan names tied to the packaging chain.
ASML works with TSMC, Nvidia, Intel, Samsung and SK hynix on High-NA EUV
Reuters (via Yahoo Finance) reported ASML plans to cooperate with its biggest customers — TSMC, Nvidia, Intel, Samsung and SK hynix — to adapt next-generation High-NA EUV lithography for AI chip production. The Motley Fool separately argued Nvidia and AMD can't make AI chips without ASML, keeping the toolmaker central to any durability thesis for the supply chain's 2027-era node roadmaps.
Korean semis surge on record exports — even as foreigners sold ₩10 trillion
Korean chip exports hit a record high, sending the KRX Semiconductor index and both Samsung and SK hynix sharply higher on Sept. 21, IT Chosun reported. The rally came despite foreign investors having net-sold more than ₩10 trillion of Samsung and SK hynix in recent weeks — Chosun Ilbo quoted analysts attributing that outflow to macro factors (rates, liquidity) and buyback flows rather than a sector downgrade.
Local view
- Taiwan: TechNews emphasized that the SOX's overnight jump pushed local AI hardware names higher, with foreign capital focused on ABF substrates and silicon IP. United Daily News (聯合新聞網) noted Citi, after a US roadshow, flagged 2028+ AI infrastructure cycle durability as investors' top question and named TSMC, ASE (日月光投控), MediaTek and Hon Hai as its four Taiwan buys.
- Korea: Seoul Economic Daily highlighted the HBM4 yield stabilization story directly, and IT Chosun tied the stock move to the record semiconductor export print.
- Japan: Nikkei reported Advantest shares rebounded as rallies in Nvidia and other US chip stocks lifted test-equipment names, with kabutan noting semiconductor-related stocks broadly bought back after the SOX rose ~3%.
Context & numbers
- Taiwan index: 48,157.29 close on Sept. 23 (+357.12, +0.75%); TSMC at T$2,500 (+1.63%).
- Foreign buying in Taiwan: NT$45.32 billion in one day (Sept. 22).
- Samsung vs SK hynix HBM share gap: 17 percentage points (from 37).
- Foreign net selling of Samsung + SK hynix: over ₩10 trillion.
- AMD briefly touched a $1 trillion valuation amid the rally.
On the radar
- Samsung's August monthly HBM data surprised to the upside per Bernstein — watch September Korea monthly trade/shipment statistics for confirmation of the trend.
- UBS's raised CoWoS trajectory (270K wpm by end-2027) implies tightening advanced-packaging capacity — quarterly updates on CoWoS utilization could move the 11 Taiwan names on its buy list.
- SK hynix continues to be the subject of persistent US/Japan investment rumors as it chases HBM dominance; treat these as unconfirmed until officially announced.
- Diamond (ダイヤモンド) republished a top analyst piece on five risks facing the semiconductor industry (Kioxia, Advantest, Tokyo Electron) — watch for equipment-sector guidance comments as Japan fiscal-H2 results approach.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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