Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-10-09
Chip stocks entered a correction phase this week, shedding over $1 trillion in value as investors questioned the sustainability of AI spending despite record-breaking earnings from Samsung and TSMC. While Samsung posted a historic quarterly profit, its shares fell alongside SK hynix amid foreign outflows and concerns over HBM pricing dynamics.
Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-10-09
Top developments
Chip Sector Enters Correction Despite Record Earnings
On October 8, semiconductor stocks fell into a Nasdaq correction, with Nvidia, SK hynix, and Samsung Electronics leading the selloff. This decline occurred even as Samsung Electronics reported a record Q3 operating profit of 107.4 trillion KRW, driven by strong AI chip demand. The market reaction suggests that "good news is sold" dynamics are at play, with investors questioning how long the current AI spending surge can last given OpenAI's revenue gaps and broader macroeconomic doubts.
TSMC Posts Record Q3 Revenue; Foreigners Raise Price Targets
TSMC announced its Q3 revenue reached a record NT$1.49 trillion, with September monthly revenue hitting NT$511.86 billion (up 54.6% YoY). In anticipation of the company’s October 15 investor conference, major foreign brokerages including Citigroup and Macquarie raised their price targets for TSMC shares, with some seeing upside to NT$4,000. Analysts point to sustained demand for advanced packaging (CoWoS) and 2nm production as key drivers, though the sector faces pressure from the broader US tech selloff.
Samsung and SK hynix Face Foreign Outflows Despite Strong Fundamentals
Despite surging chip exports from Korea, both Samsung Electronics and SK hynix saw significant share price declines due to heavy foreign selling. Foreign investors have net-sold approximately 20 trillion KRW worth of Korean stocks in the past month, with Samsung and SK hynix being the top two targets for divestment. This has pushed foreign ownership of these key semiconductor names below 50% for the first time in over three years. Analysts note that while memory supply tightness persists, concerns over HBM4 competition and potential capex cycles for 2027 are causing profit-taking.
Japanese Chip Equipment Makers Rally on US Tech Strength
In contrast to the broader sector correction, Japanese semiconductor equipment stocks like Advantest and Tokyo Electron saw periods of strong gains earlier in the week. Advantest hit a 5-day winning streak, reaching new highs on reports of strong semiconductor inspection demand and positive spillover from Micron’s strong results. Tokyo Electron also rallied significantly on expectations of operating profits hitting 1 trillion yen. However, these gains were partially retraced by October 8 as US chip stocks pulled back, leading to profit-taking in Tokyo.
Local view
In Korea, media outlets are grappling with the paradox of record corporate profits versus falling stock prices. Chosun Ilbo highlights that foreign investors have dumped 20 trillion KRW in Korean equities recently, specifically targeting Samsung and SK hynix to lock in profits after previous rallies. Seoul Shinmun notes that SK hynix is expected to post an operating margin near 80%, a rare feat for manufacturing, yet the stock remains under pressure due to valuation concerns and foreign outflows.
In Taiwan, United Daily News (UDN) reports that foreign institutions are bullish ahead of TSMC’s Oct 15 conference, with some raising price targets to NT$4,000 based on robust AI demand. However, local analysts warn that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s recent 3.39% drop could weigh on the local index in the short term. ETtoday and other outlets emphasize that TSMC’s CoWoS capacity expansion plans remain the critical bottleneck for AI server production, which continues to support long-term growth narratives.
Context & numbers
- Samsung Electronics: Q3 Operating Profit projected at 107.4 trillion KRW (record high).
- SK hynix: Expected Q3 operating margin near 78-80%.
- TSMC: September Revenue NT$511.86 billion (+54.6% YoY).
- Foreign Flows in Korea: ~20 trillion KRW net sell-off in the past month.
- HBM Market: Bernstein analyst report suggests Samsung may be gaining HBM share while cutting SK hynix’s target price, citing export data trends.
On the radar
- TSMC Investor Conference (Oct 15): The most anticipated event of the month. Investors will look for updated capex guidance, 2nm yield updates, and commentary on global AI demand sustainability.
- Samsung Q3 Final Earnings Release: While preliminary figures showed record profits, the final breakdown of memory vs. foundry performance will be scrutinized for signs of HBM4 ramp-up speed.
- US Export Control Policy: The BIS case-by-case review policy for Nvidia H200 and AMD MI325X exports to China remains in effect; any new clarifications or enforcement actions could impact sentiment for Nvidia and its supply chain partners.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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