Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-09-03
Nvidia’s record-breaking earnings and aggressive long-term guidance have triggered a structural rotation, with semiconductor stocks significantly outperforming Big Tech peers. In Korea, analyst sentiment has split sharply as Samsung Electronics gains ground in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) race against SK hynix, leading to divergent target price revisions. Meanwhile, TSMC continues to benefit from robust foreign investment in Taiwan’s wafer sector, and SK hynix has officially launched a major US packaging facility to navigate trade barriers.
Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-09-03
Top developments
Chipmakers Displace Big Tech in AI Rally
Following Nvidia’s Q2 FY2027 earnings report on August 26, which showcased a record $96.2 billion quarter and a forecast for 70% revenue growth by fiscal 2028, the market leadership has shifted decisively. Semiconductor stocks are dramatically outperforming the "Magnificent Seven," with Micron up 220% and Marvell up 185%, compared to just a 4% gain for the Big Tech ETF. This shift highlights that AI spending is flowing directly to hardware makers rather than software platforms.
HBM4 Competition Splits Analyst Views on Samsung and SK hynix
On August 31, LS Securities issued a significant divergence in its outlook for South Korea’s memory giants, raising its target price for Samsung Electronics to 450,000 won while cutting SK hynix’s target by 27% to 2.4 million won. The revision reflects Samsung’s successful expansion of HBM4 production, with estimates suggesting Samsung’s HBM4 share could jump from 5% in Q1 to 35% in Q2. Consequently, SK hynix’s projected operating margin for HBM next year was lowered from 80% to 60% due to intensifying competition.
Foreign Capital Pours into Taiwan Wafer Giants
In late August, foreign investors executed a massive buyback of Taiwan’s semiconductor sector, netting NT$41.75 billion (approx. $1.3 billion) on August 28 alone. This surge coincided with a rise in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and TSMC’s ADR, pushing the Taiex index toward the 46,000-point mark. The inflow was heavily concentrated in TSMC and UMC, signaling strong confidence in the foundry sector despite broader macroeconomic concerns.
SK hynix Launches $4 Billion US Packaging Plant
On August 27, SK hynix held a groundbreaking ceremony for its new advanced packaging facility in West Lafayette, Indiana. Valued at over $4 billion, this is SK hynix’s first HBM advanced packaging base in the United States, strategically positioned to mitigate tariff risks and secure supply chain access for US customers.
Local view
South Korea: Local financial media are buzzing with the "HBM4 rivalry" narrative. Seoul Economic Daily highlights how LS Securities’ move to cut SK hynix’s target price while raising Samsung’s marks a turning point, noting that Samsung’s HBM4 capacity expansion is eroding SK hynix’s historical dominance. The sentiment suggests that while demand remains strong, the monopoly premium SK hynix enjoyed is fading as Samsung catches up in yield and volume.
Japan: Japanese market commentators are cautious despite Nvidia’s success. Nikkei reports that Advantest shares fell after an initial morning rally, as investors weighed the positive Nvidia results against fears of early US interest rate hikes. Furthermore, semiconductor equipment makers like Tokyo Electron and Disco are facing selling pressure ahead of their upcoming earnings, with the SOX index decline triggering risk-off moves in Tokyo.
Context & numbers
- Nvidia Performance: Q2 FY2027 revenue hit a record $96.2 billion. CEO Jensen Huang forecasts 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028.
- Memory Prices: DRAM spot prices are accelerating, with TrendForce projecting server DRAM contract prices to jump 260% in 2026.
- Target Price Revisions (Korea): Samsung Electronics raised to 450,000 KRW; SK hynix cut to 2,400,000 KRW.
- Foreign Investment (Taiwan): Net foreign buying of NT$41.75 billion in wafer stocks on Aug 28.
On the radar
- Japan Equipment Earnings: Major Japanese semiconductor equipment makers (Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Disco) begin reporting earnings from August 29, which will provide insight into memory capex trends.
- US Rate Policy: Market movements are increasingly sensitive to Fed comments; recent hawkish remarks have pressured tech valuations despite strong fundamentals.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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