Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-09-05
The semiconductor sector faces a bifurcated outlook as HBM market shares shift decisively toward Samsung, while Nvidia’s aggressive capex guidance fuels continued hyperscaler spending. Meanwhile, Chinese memory maker CXMT is gaining ground in DRAM, pressuring incumbent players like Micron and SK hynix, and Japanese equipment stocks remain volatile amid mixed signals on near-term investment cycles.
Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-09-05
Top developments
HBM Market Share Realignment: Samsung Gains, SK hynix Slides
Counterpoint Research data released on September 3 reveals that Samsung Electronics significantly increased its High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market share to 33% in Q2 2026, narrowing the gap with market leader SK hynix, which saw its share drop to 50%. This shift has prompted analysts at LS Securities to raise their target price for Samsung Electronics to 450,000 won while cutting SK hynix’s target by 27% to 2.4 million won. The divergence reflects intensifying competition in HBM4, where Samsung’s expanded supply capabilities are eroding SK hynix’s historical dominance.
Nvidia’s $1.3 Trillion Capex Forecast Drives AI Infrastructure Spend
In its recent earnings report, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang forecasted that capital expenditure among the top five hyperscalers will surge to $1.3 trillion next year, up from $800 billion in 2026. This massive increase in infrastructure spending underscores the sustained demand for AI hardware and validates the long-term growth thesis for chipmakers like TSMC and ASML. The guidance suggests that despite short-term volatility, the structural demand for advanced nodes and packaging technologies like CoWoS remains robust through 2027.
CXMT Displaces Incumbents in DRAM Market
China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is gaining momentum in the DRAM sector, causing Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix to suffer drops in market share. This development marks a significant shift in the global memory landscape, as Chinese domestic production capabilities mature faster than anticipated. For investors, this introduces new competitive risks for established memory giants and could pressure pricing margins if CXMT continues to expand its output aggressively.
Japanese Equipment Stocks Face Volatility Despite Strong Fundamentals
Japanese semiconductor equipment makers, including Advantest and Tokyo Electron, have experienced significant price volatility following a sharp decline in the SOX index. While Advantest initially reacted positively to Nvidia’s strong earnings, the sector faced selling pressure due to broader risk-off sentiment and concerns over early US interest rate hikes. Analysts note that while memory investment remains a key driver for these firms, near-term valuations are sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical tensions.
Local view
Taiwan: Foreign investors have shown renewed confidence in Taiwan’s wafer foundries, with net buying of NT$41.7 billion concentrated in TSMC and UMC on August 28. Local media highlight that TSMC’s capacity expansion, driven by unprecedented AI demand, continues to attract significant foreign inflows, with some foreign banks raising target prices based on strong CoWoS demand.
Korea: Korean media are closely watching the "HBM rivalry" between Samsung and SK hynix. Reports from Seoul Economic Daily and Money Today emphasize that Samsung’s aggressive push into HBM4 is reshaping analyst expectations, with LS Securities explicitly citing Samsung’s supply expansion as the reason for lowering SK hynix’s profit margin forecasts for 2027.
Japan: Nikkei and local financial portals note that while Nvidia’s earnings were positive, Japanese chip equipment stocks like Advantest and Tokyo Electron struggled to sustain gains due to global yield curve pressures. There is growing interest in whether these companies can maintain record profits given the high base effects and potential slowdowns in non-AI segments.
Context & numbers
- Hyperscaler Capex: Projected to rise from $800 billion in 2026 to $1.3 trillion in 2027, according to Nvidia management.
- HBM Market Share (Q2 2026): SK hynix holds 50%, down year-on-year; Samsung holds 33%, a significant increase.
- Analyst Targets: LS Securities raised Samsung Electronics’ target to 450,000 KRW and cut SK hynix’s to 2.4 million KRW.
- Foreign Investment in Taiwan: Net buying of NT$41.7 billion in wafer foundries (TSMC, UMC) recorded on August 28.
On the radar
- Broadcom Earnings: Broadcom is scheduled to report earnings soon, which will be a key indicator for the custom ASIC and networking side of the AI trade.
- Micron Earnings: Micron’s upcoming report will provide further clarity on DRAM pricing trends and the impact of CXMT’s rising competition.
- TSMC Monthly Revenue: Investors are awaiting TSMC’s monthly revenue figures to gauge the pace of advanced node demand and CoWoS capacity utilization.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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