Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-09-14
TSMC posted record monthly revenue driven by AI demand, while South Korean memory giants SK hynix and Samsung Electronics faced volatility due to DeepSeek’s efficiency gains and shifting analyst targets. Foreign investors drove historic buying in Taiwan’s semiconductor sector before a mid-week sell-off, as Tokyo equipment makers prepared for earnings and stock splits.
Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-09-14
Top developments
TSMC Posts Record August Revenue Amid AI Capacity Strain
TSMC reported record revenue of NT$514.8 billion for August 2026, marking a 53.3% year-over-year increase. This surge highlights that AI chip demand continues to strain foundry capacity, with advanced packaging nodes like CoWoS-L remaining fully booked through 2026. For Daily desk analysts, this reinforces TSMC's dominance and suggests that supply constraints, rather than demand softness, are the primary bottleneck for AI hardware deployment.
DeepSeek Efficiency Gains Trigger Sell-Off in Korean Memory Stocks
On September 11, shares of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics dipped 2.2% and 3.5% respectively after DeepSeek released an AI model that raised doubts about the strength of HBM demand. The model’s efficiency gains suggested that future AI applications might require less high-bandwidth memory per inference cycle than previously estimated. This development introduces new volatility into the HBM supply outlook, challenging the "sold-out" narrative that has supported memory valuations.
Foreign Investors Drive Historic Buying in Taiwan Semiconductor Sector
Foreign investors purchased NT$88.3 billion worth of Taiwan stocks on September 7, the fourth-largest single-day net buy in history, driving the weighted index to its second-highest close ever. TSMC and MediaTek led the rally, benefiting from strong AI demand signals and rising foundry prices. However, by September 11, foreign investors shifted to selling, offloading nearly NT$90 billion as profit-taking hit electronics and semiconductor sectors.
Analyst Targets Diverge for Samsung and SK hynix Over HBM4
LS Securities raised its target price for Samsung Electronics to 450,000 won while cutting SK hynix to 2.4 million won, citing Samsung’s improved HBM4 yield rates and expanded supply. This divergence reflects growing competition in the HBM market, where Samsung is gaining ground against SK hynix’s traditional dominance. The shift impacts capex guidance expectations, as customers may diversify suppliers more aggressively if yield parity is achieved.
Tokyo Electron Announces 5-for-1 Stock Split Ahead of Earnings
Tokyo Electron will execute a 5-for-1 stock split effective October 1, 2026, aiming to increase retail accessibility amid soaring AI-driven demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment. This move comes as Japanese equipment makers like Advantest and Tokyo Electron prepare for key earnings reports later this month. The split signals confidence in long-term growth from hyperscaler capex, which is projected to reach $775–800 billion in 2026.
Local view
In Taiwan, Newtalk News highlighted the massive foreign inflow of NT$88.3 billion on September 7, noting it was the fourth-largest in history and propelled TSMC and MediaTek higher. Conversely, Storm Media reported on September 11 that foreign investors reversed course, selling nearly NT$90 billion in a single day, with memory and semiconductor stocks facing significant profit-taking.
In Japan, Zaikei Shimbun focused on Tokyo Electron’s stock split and compared its valuation and performance against peers like Advantest and SCREEN, emphasizing the sector's exposure to AI infrastructure spending.
Context & numbers
- TSMC Revenue: NT$514.8 billion for August 2026, up 53.3% YoY.
- Hyperscaler Capex: Projected at $775–800 billion for 2026 buildout.
- CoWoS Capacity: Estimated to reach ~130,000 wafers per month by end of 2026, yet still sold out.
- Stock Movements: SK hynix -2.2%, Samsung -3.5% on Sept 11; Tokyo Electron +4.73% on Sept 7.
On the radar
- Tokyo Electron Stock Split: Effective October 1, 2026.
- Advantest & Equipment Earnings: Key earnings releases for Japanese semiconductor equipment makers are scheduled for late September, with markets watching for memory investment guidance.
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