Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-09-24
The AI chip trade extended its rally this week, with Taiwan's Taiex hitting a record near 48,000 and Korea's Samsung/SK Hynix outperforming on improving HBM4 yield data. UBS raised its CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity outlook, and Japan's semiconductor complex continued tracking the SOX rebound.
Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-09-24
Top developments
UBS lifts CoWoS capacity outlook, backs 11 Taiwan supply-chain names
UBS raised its CoWoS monthly capacity forecast to 270,000 wafers per month by end-2027, up from a prior 260,000 expectation and versus 160,000 at end-2026, saying CoWoS remains irreplaceable for large AI accelerators even as Intel's EMIB-T and TSMC's COPOS come online. UBS issued fresh buy calls on 11 Taiwan-listed companies across the advanced-packaging chain, calling the market underappreciation of the packaging bottleneck "severe." This is a direct read-through for TSMC capex and packaging-related names like ASE.
Samsung closes HBM gap with SK hynix to 17 points
Samsung's HBM market-share gap versus SK hynix narrowed to 17 percentage points as HBM4 yields stabilized around 80%, up from under 60% early in mass production, according to Seoul Economic Daily coverage published Sept. 21. Bernstein separately found Samsung's August HBM revenue growth outpaced SK hynix's. The result: brokers diverged, with Samsung price targets raised while SK hynix retains its lead on overall HBM competitiveness.
SK hynix near 1.86 million won; Goldman targets 3.5 million
SK hynix closed at 1.862 million won on Sept. 23, up 1.2%, with Goldman Sachs carrying a 3.5-million-won price target — implying roughly 88% upside from current levels. Samsung and SK hynix shares also rallied on Sept. 21 on news of record-high Korean semiconductor exports, lifting the KRX semiconductor index.
Taiex hits record 47,719+ as foreign money floods in
Taiwan's Taiex touched an intraday record 48,601 on Sept. 22, closing at 47,719 (+1.14%) on over NT$1 trillion volume, powered by a 3%+ SOX rally and AMD's brief move to a $1 trillion valuation. Foreign investors bought NT$45.3 billion in a single day on Sept. 22, concentrated in ABF substrate names, MediaTek and the advanced-packaging chain, followed by another NT$37.3 billion net buy on Sept. 23 (Taiex +357 points to 48,157).
Japan equipment names ride the SOX rebound
Tokyo's semiconductor complex continued to trade off Wall Street: Advantest rebounded multiple times in the week following Nvidia's comment that sales could double next year, and Ibiden surged on reports of remarks from Nvidia's CEO, with the Nikkei opening up 457 yen on wide-ranging semiconductor strength. AMD gained roughly 36% in September and Arm 42%, per Investing.com Japan.
Local view
Taiwan's Economic Daily (聯合新聞網/經濟日報) highlighted UBS "firing the first shot" calling MediaTek (2454) "severely undervalued" over its role in Google's TPU project, raising its target to NT$7,300 — second only to Macquarie's NT$10,000.
Korean-language Seoul Economic Daily framed HBM4's "golden yield" stabilization around 80% as directly tied to an earnings inflection for Samsung, while IT Chosun tied the Samsung/SK hynix share surge to record-high semiconductor exports and a memory-upcycle narrative.
Japan's kabutan noted Advantest and peers rallying broadly on the overnight ~3% SOX gain, with buybacks dominant.
Context & numbers
- CoWoS monthly capacity: 160,000 wafers (end-2026) → 270,000 projected (end-2027), per UBS; ~69% growth.
- Samsung vs. SK hynix HBM share gap: 17 percentage points, down from 37 points; HBM4 yield ~80% (from <60%).
- SK hynix: 1.862 million won close (Sept. 23, +1.2%); Goldman target 3.5 million won.
- Taiex: record intraday 48,601; close 47,719 (Sept. 22), 48,157 (Sept. 23); foreign net buys NT$45.32B and NT$37.33B on consecutive days.
- SOX up over 3% in the prior session; AMD briefly at $1 trillion valuation; AMD +36% and Arm +42% in September.
On the radar
- SK hynix share-energy: whether Goldman's 3.5-million-won scenario gains traction among local brokers; foreign net-buying momentum in Korean chip names is being watched by want of a successor buyer, per Invezz's "losing a major buyer" analysis.
- UBS's 11 Taiwan CoWoS beneficiaries — watch for target-price upgrades cascading through ABF substrate and packaging names.
- Japanese equipment names (Advantest, Tokyo Electron) sensitivity to any Nvidia forward-sales updates; Ibiden's continued surge on Nvidia CEO remarks is rumor-flagged by media as material rather than confirmed guidance.
- Nvidia's reported "double next year" sales comment, which triggered Advantest buying on Sept. 18, is worth tracking for subsequent clarification in official earnings commentary.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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