Chip Stocks and the AI Trade: Nvidia to SK hynix — 2026-09-02

Top developments

Nvidia’s Historic Quarter Boosts Asian Supply Chain

On August 26, Nvidia reported earnings that surpassed analyst forecasts, with CEO Jensen Huang forecasting 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, far above estimates. This "historic quarter" immediately lifted sentiment for key suppliers in Asia. TSMC ADRs rose 1.78% ahead of the report, and the company’s stock benefited from renewed confidence in AI chip demand. In Korea, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix shares jumped on August 27, reacting to the strong data center outlook which reinforces demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).

HBM4 Competition Splits Analyst Targets for Samsung and SK hynix

As the market digested Nvidia’s results, a divergence emerged in how analysts view the two Korean memory leaders. On August 31, LS Securities raised its target price for Samsung Electronics to 450,000 won while cutting its target for SK hynix by 27% to 2.4 million won. The firm cited Samsung’s progress in HBM4 yield improvement and supply expansion, noting that HBM4’s share of Samsung’s memory revenue is estimated to jump from 5% in Q1 to 35% in Q2. Conversely, LS Securities lowered its operating margin forecast for SK hynix’s HBM segment from 80% to 60%, reflecting intensifying competition and normalization of supplier pricing power. By September 1, this sentiment was reflected in market moves, with SK hynix falling 8.98% while Samsung gained.

Japanese Chip Equipment Stocks Correct After Initial Rally

Despite the positive news from Nvidia, Japanese semiconductor equipment manufacturers faced a sharp reversal in early September. On August 31, major stocks including Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Disco opened with selling pressure following a significant drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) overnight. By September 1, the Nikkei average fell sharply, with Advantest and Tokyo Electron alone dragging the index down by approximately 721 yen. Analysts noted that while Nvidia’s earnings were positive, concerns over early US interest rate hikes and profit-taking led to a shift from semiconductor and AI-related stocks toward software and financial sectors.

Local view

South Korea: Local media highlighted the strategic importance of the HBM4 transition. Seoul Economic Daily reported that the "HBM4 shift" is the primary driver behind the split in analyst views, with Samsung gaining ground due to successful yield improvements. Korea Economic Daily noted that top-tier investors were buying Samsung while selling SK hynix, with Samsung becoming the most net-bought stock by these high-performing traders during recent market volatility.

Japan: Japanese financial outlets focused on the volatility of equipment stocks. Minkabu reported that the selling in Advantest and Tokyo Electron was driven by risk-aversion following the SOX index decline, despite the underlying strength in AI demand. Nikkei highlighted that Advantest’s stock initially rose after Nvidia’s earnings but quickly reversed into decline, illustrating the market's sensitivity to broader macroeconomic signals like Fed policy expectations.

Context & numbers

• Nvidia Guidance: CEO Jensen Huang forecasted 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, significantly beating consensus estimates.
• Memory Pricing: TrendForce projects server DRAM prices will jump 260% in 2026, following a 64% rise in the second half of last year.
• TSMC CapEx: TSMC has confirmed its 2026 CapEx at the high end of its $52B–$56B guidance, with an additional $100B committed to US manufacturing (total $265B).
• Target Price Adjustments: LS Securities cut SK hynix’s target by 27% to 2.4 million won and raised Samsung Electronics’ target to 450,000 won.
• Market Moves: On August 28, foreign investors bought a net 41.75 billion NTD of Taiwanese equities, heavily concentrated in TSMC and UMC.

On the radar

• TSMC Monthly Sales: Investors are watching TSMC’s upcoming monthly revenue reports for further confirmation of AI-driven demand recovery.
• HBM4 Mass Production Timelines: Continued monitoring of Samsung’s HBM4 yield rates and mass production schedules is critical, as this is the key differentiator driving current valuation adjustments.
• US Interest Rate Policy: Japanese and Asian semiconductor stocks remain highly sensitive to US Federal Reserve comments regarding interest rates, as seen in the August 31 sell-off.