Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-09-14
LME copper prices faced their first weekly decline since June due to waning confidence in US tariff implementation, despite touching a record high of $14,779/mt earlier in the week. Meanwhile, global smelting margins have collapsed to zero as mining supply constraints clash with record metal prices, and Chilean production data revealed a significant year-on-year drop in July output.
Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-09-14
Top developments
Copper Headed for First Weekly Dip Since June on Tariff Doubts
On Friday, September 12, LME copper prices were on track for their first weekly loss since June, following a surge to a record high of $14,779 a ton earlier in the week. The pullback was driven by profit-taking and growing skepticism among traders that the US will impose the anticipated refined copper tariffs, which had fueled a massive inventory buildup in the US. This volatility highlights the market's sensitivity to policy headlines, with prices now stabilizing at lower levels as the "tariff premium" evaporates.
Smelting Margins Hit Zero Amid Record Prices
A stark divergence has emerged in the copper supply chain: while LME prices hit all-time highs, global smelting margins have collapsed to zero or negative territory. The Indian Primary Copper Producers Association (IPCPA) noted that a mismatch between mining and smelting capacity is squeezing processors, who are paying premium prices for concentrates without being able to pass costs onto fabricators. This structural imbalance threatens long-term supply stability, as unprofitable smelters may curtail operations, potentially exacerbating the physical tightness outside the US.
Chilean Copper Output Falls in July; Cochilco Raises Price Forecast
Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, reported that national copper production fell in July, driven by lower output from Codelco and BHP’s Escondida. Despite the production slump, Cochilco raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to $5.95 per pound, citing persistent operational disruptions and strong demand from China's energy transition. The commission projects 2026 extraction at 5.27 million tonnes, a 2.6% decrease from 2025, reinforcing the narrative of constrained Andean supply that underpins current price floors.
White House Tariff Stall Creates Supply Uncertainty
The White House missed its June 30, 2026 deadline for deciding on refined copper tariffs, leaving the market in limbo. TechTimes reports that this stall has effectively created a "de facto" import duty through record COMEX prices, but without the clarity needed for long-term investment. With only two US copper smelters and mine development timelines stretching into the mid-2040s, analysts argue that no immediate policy decision can resolve the domestic supply deficit, keeping volatility high for US-based manufacturers.
Local view
Río Times (Latin America-focused English media) highlighted the regional impact of the price surge, noting that while Chilean and Peruvian receipts are lifted by record prices, the cost of grid build-out in Latin America is also rising. The outlet emphasized that the "tight Andean supply" is colliding with China’s energy-transition demand, creating a complex dynamic for local miners who benefit from higher revenues but face higher operational costs.
Context & numbers
- LME Copper: Reached a record high of $14,779/mt during the week ending Sept 12 before retreating due to profit-taking.
- Price Forecast: Cochilco raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $5.95/lb (up from $5.55/lb).
- Production: Chilean copper production is projected to fall 2.6% in 2026 to 5.27 million tonnes.
- Smelting Margins: Global smelting margins have hit zero, exposing the disconnect between raw material costs and refined product pricing.
On the radar
- US Tariff Decision: Market participants are watching for any delayed announcement from the White House regarding Section 232 copper tariffs, which remains a key driver of COMEX-LME spreads.
- ICSG Data Release: Traders await the next International Copper Study Group (ICSG) bulletin for updated global deficit figures, currently projected at 150,000 tonnes for 2026.
- Chinese Demand Signals: Recent data showed China's copper imports fell to 382,000 tonnes in August; further slowdowns could pressure the physical market outside the US.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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