Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-09-07
Copper prices have paused their historic 10-week rally, slipping to $14,377 per tonne as rising US interest rate bets strengthen the dollar. Meanwhile, supply-side pressures remain intense, with Chile’s state miner Cochilco raising its 2026 price forecast to $5.95/lb due to operational disruptions and declining production from major producers like Codelco and BHP.
Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-09-07
Top developments
Copper ends 10-week winning streak on stronger dollar
On September 7, 2026, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.27% to close at $14,377 a metric ton. This marks the first significant decline after a relentless 10-week rally that saw prices approach record highs. The pullback was driven primarily by a resurgence in expectations for US Federal Reserve rate hikes, which strengthened the dollar and weighed on dollar-denominated industrial metals.
Cochilco raises 2026 copper price forecast to $5.95/lb
Chile’s state-owned copper agency, Cochilco, has revised its average copper price forecast for 2026 upward to US$5.95 per pound. This adjustment reflects ongoing operational interruptions in mining and a projected 2.6% decline in Chilean production compared to 2025. The agency cited underperformance from major miners Codelco and BHP as key factors limiting output growth, reinforcing the structural supply tightness that has supported LME prices.
ANZ predicts record copper prices driven by tariffs and supply gaps
Analysts at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. stated that copper has the potential to hit new records early next year. Their outlook combines persistent US tariff concerns, which distort global inventory flows, with ongoing supply challenges at mines and resilient demand from energy transition sectors. This view contrasts with the immediate price softness seen this week, suggesting the medium-term bull case remains intact despite macro headwinds.
Local view
Chilean Media & Stakeholders Local Chilean media outlets are highlighting the divergence between market prices and national budget assumptions. Diario Financiero reports that while spot prices have surged, the Chilean government's 2027 budget proposal conservatively assumes a copper price of US$5.37 per pound, significantly below the recent record highs of US$6.60 per pound. This discrepancy is drawing attention to potential fiscal risks if the supercycle persists or, conversely, missed revenue opportunities if the conservative estimate proves too low given Cochilco's raised forecasts.
Additionally, La Tercera notes that Cochilco’s vice president, Claudia Rodríguez, emphasized the challenge of maintaining Chile's smelting capacity amid shifting global trade flows, noting that China’s refined copper purchases have decreased by 63% since 2017, while US imports have risen by 61%.
Context & numbers
- LME Copper (3-month): $14,377/t (Sept 7, down 0.27%)
- LME Aluminium: ~$3,293/t (based on early Sept indications)
- LME Zinc: ~$3,877/t (based on early Sept indications)
- Chile Production Forecast 2026: 5.27 million tonnes (down 2.6% YoY)
- US Copper Imports: July 2026 volumes hit an all-time high, contributing to COMEX premiums and global inventory shifts
On the radar
- Fed Policy Signals: Traders are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data for further clarity on rate hike probabilities, which will directly impact the dollar and industrial metal demand.
- Chilean Budget Debate: The gap between the government's assumed copper price ($5.37/lb) and market realities ($5.95-$6.60/lb) may lead to political pressure for budget revisions in Santiago.
- LME Inventory Builds: After weeks of drawdowns, watch for signs of stabilization or further builds in LME warehouses as high prices potentially curb physical demand in Asia.
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