Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-09-14
Copper prices are stabilizing near record highs as the market digests the first weekly decline since June, driven by doubts over US tariff implementation. While LME copper briefly touched $14,779/mt, profit-taking and a lack of concrete policy decisions from the White House have tempered the rally. Meanwhile, global smelting margins have collapsed to zero despite record metal prices, highlighting a severe structural mismatch between mining and refining capacity.
Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-09-14
Top developments
Copper ends week with first drop since June amid tariff uncertainty
On Friday, September 12, copper prices were on track for their first weekly decline since June, primarily due to growing skepticism regarding the US government's ability to implement refined copper tariffs before the missed June 30 deadline. Although prices steadied on Friday, the lack of a concrete policy decision has led to profit-taking after LME copper hit an all-time high of $14,779 per metric ton earlier in the week. This pullback suggests that the market is beginning to price out the immediate impact of protectionist measures, focusing instead on actual physical availability.
Smelting margins collapse to zero despite record metal prices
A critical divergence has emerged in the supply chain: while copper prices hit record highs, global smelting margins have collapsed to zero, meaning smelters are losing money on every ton processed. The Indian Primary Copper Producers Association (IPCPA) noted that this mismatch between mining capacity and smelting capacity is a primary driver of the current volatility. With only two operational copper smelters in the US and a 16-year timeline for new mine developments, no short-term policy fix can resolve the physical bottleneck, creating a "de facto" import duty via high COMEX prices.
Chilean and Peruvian supply risks tighten non-US availability
Supply concerns in Latin America continue to support prices outside the US. Chile’s copper output fell 13.8% year-on-year in April 2026, with state-owned Codelco struggling to recover production levels. The Rio Times reported that tight Andean supply has collided with China’s energy-transition demand, keeping a floor under prices even as US inventories rise. Cochilco, Chile’s copper commission, recently raised its 2026 price forecast to $5.95 per pound, citing operational interruptions that limit production recovery.
Zinc falls on China export concerns
While copper remained resilient, zinc prices faced downward pressure due to concerns over Chinese export policies. Reports indicate that zinc fell amid shifts in tariff expectations and broader LME copper pullbacks. The divergence highlights how different base metals are reacting to specific regional policy signals, with zinc particularly sensitive to Chinese regulatory moves that could alter global flow patterns.
Local view
Local media in Latin America highlight the tension between record prices and declining output. Río Times Online notes that despite the record $14,533/tonne mark reached on September 7, Chilean and Peruvian receipts are not increasing proportionally due to operational limits at major mines like El Teniente, which faces a five-year slump. In India, CNBC-TV18 reports that the IPCPA views the current rally as a structural warning about the global mining-smelting mismatch, rather than just a temporary tariff-driven spike.
Context & numbers
- LME Copper High: $14,779 per metric ton (record high touched this week)
- LME Copper Close (Sept 12): Fell 0.2% to $14,743/mt following the peak
- Chilean Production Drop: -13.8% year-on-year (April 2026 data cited in recent analyses)
- Cochilco Forecast: Raised 2026 copper price estimate to $5.95/lb
- China Imports: Fell to 382,000 tonnes in August, contrasting with record US imports
On the radar
- US Tariff Decision: Investors are watching for any official statement from the White House regarding the stalled refined copper tariff deadline, which was originally set for June 30, 2026.
- Smelter Capacity Crisis: Continued monitoring of global smelter closures or expansions, as zero-margin operations may force consolidation or capacity cuts, further tightening refined supply.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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