Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-09-04
Copper prices remain volatile as supply fears and tariff threats clash with a stronger US dollar, with LME stocks dropping sharply to 107,050 metric tons. Aluminium has climbed to a three-week high on tightness, while zinc remains near four-year highs despite recent dollar-driven pullbacks.
Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-09-04
Top developments
Aluminium Hits Three-Week High on Supply Tightness
Benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange rose to $3,298 a metric ton, marking a three-week high driven by renewed focus on physical tightness. Prices briefly touched $3,328.50 before settling, reflecting market sensitivity to inventory levels and softer dollar dynamics. This movement suggests that while macro headwinds exist, the fundamental supply-demand balance in aluminium remains precarious for buyers.
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Aluminium touches three-week high, supply back in focus - Markets - Business Recorder
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Copper rises, set for eighth weekly gain on falling LME stocks - Markets - Business Recorder
LME Copper Stocks Drop Sharply Amid Tariff Concerns
Open tonnage at LME warehouses fell to 107,050 metric tons on August 26, a significant decline from 166,775 MT just one week prior. This rapid drawdown is attributed to copper being drawn into COMEX warehouses in anticipation of potential US tariffs, tightening supplies elsewhere. The widening spread between August and September copper contracts highlights the severity of this physical squeeze.
Zinc Remains Near Four-Year High Despite Dollar Pressure
Zinc prices held near four-year highs as available LME stocks fell to 75,600 tons, equivalent to only two days of global consumption. Although zinc retreated slightly to $3,933 a metric ton due to a strong dollar, the underlying supply deficit continues to support prices. The disconnect between high prices and low inventories signals a structurally tight market for the base metal.
ANZ Forecasts Record Copper Prices on Tariff Distortions
Analysts at ANZ Group Holdings predict copper could hit record highs early next year as US tariff concerns distort market flows. The combination of supply challenges at mines and resilient global demand is expected to outweigh the temporary drag from a stronger dollar. This forecast underscores the market's belief that tariff-induced inventory shifts will create lasting physical tightness outside the US.
Local view
Local media in Chile highlight the divergence between rising prices and falling output. Cochilco, Chile's state copper agency, raised its 2026 price forecast to US$5.95 per pound but simultaneously lowered production estimates by 2.6% to 5.27 million tons. Diario Financiero notes that weaker performance from state miner Codelco and BHP is the primary driver behind the projected output decline, creating a supply vacuum that global markets are struggling to fill.
Context & numbers
- Aluminium: $3,298/mt (up 0.4%)
- Copper: $14,133.5/mt (down 0.99% on Sept 2)
- Zinc: $3,933/mt (up 1.3% on Aug 31)
- Nickel: $16,675.00/mt (as of Sept 3)
- LME Copper Stocks: 107,050 mt (Aug 26) vs 166,775 mt (Aug 19)
- LME Zinc Stocks: 75,600 mt (~2 days global consumption)
On the radar
- US Tariff Policy: Investors are closely watching for any concrete announcements regarding US copper tariffs, which continue to drive inventory shifts between LME and COMEX.
- Fed Rate Hikes: Rising bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes are strengthening the dollar, posing a short-term headwind for industrial metals priced in USD.
- Chilean Production Data: Further updates on Codelco's operational recovery will be critical, as Chile accounts for a significant portion of global supply and is currently facing a 2.6% projected output drop.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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