Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-09-08
LME copper surged to an all-time high of $14,703 per metric ton on September 8, driven by speculative buying amid fears of tight supplies outside the US and potential tariffs. Meanwhile, Chilean copper exports fell to a 13-month low despite record prices, as operational issues and winter storms continued to hamper production. <!-- /headline --> **Copper Hits Record High as Chile Exports Fall to 13-Month Low**
Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-09-08
Top developments
LME Copper Hits All-Time Record Amid Supply Scramble
On September 8, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) gained 1.3% to reach $14,703 a metric ton, setting a new official record. This surge was fueled by concerns over shortages outside the United States and expectations that the US may impose new tariffs on refined copper imports, prompting a "scramble" for stockpiles in other regions. The price action highlights a growing divergence between US inventories, which remain strong due to pre-tariff imports, and the tightening supply in Europe and Asia.
Chilean Copper Exports Drop to 13-Month Low
Despite record global prices, Chile’s copper exports fell to their lowest level in over a year, totaling $4.62 billion in August, a 14% decrease from July. Local media reports attribute this decline to operational problems at major mines and disruptions caused by severe winter storms in July and August. This supply-side weakness in the world's largest producer is exacerbating global tightness, supporting higher LME prices even as demand signals from China show mixed results.
SHFE Zinc Surges as Base Metals Rally in China
In China, domestic base metals broadly rose on September 8, with Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) zinc gaining 2.37% and SHFE copper up 1.36%. The rally was supported by falling LME inventories, which are at their lowest levels since February, raising concerns about availability. Analysts note that while Chinese fabrication demand has cooled slightly, the energy transition and AI infrastructure build-up continue to provide structural support for metal consumption.
Cochilco Raises 2026 Price Forecast Amid Production Slump
Chile’s state copper agency, Cochilco, has raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $5.95 per pound, citing persistent operational interruptions that limit output. The agency projects Chilean extraction will fall 2.6% to 5.27 million tons in 2026 compared to 2025, driven by lower performance from Codelco and BHP. This downgrade in supply outlooks from key Andean nations reinforces the bullish case for LME prices, as the market adjusts to a structural deficit forecasted by the ICSG.
Local view
Local media in Chile and Peru are focusing heavily on the disconnect between record international prices and declining local export revenues. La República highlights that Chilean mining faces significant operational challenges, with winter storms disrupting logistics and production. In China, SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) reports that domestic sentiment remains positive for zinc and copper, with SHFE prices reflecting global tightness despite some cooling in downstream fabrication orders.
Context & numbers
- LME Copper: Reached a record high of $14,703/ton on Sept 8; closed at $14,494/ton on Sept 7.
- Chilean Exports: August exports totaled $4.62 billion, down 14% month-on-month.
- ICSG Forecast: The International Copper Study Group predicts a 150,000-ton deficit for 2026, the first structural shortage since 2009.
- Cochilco Forecast: Raised 2026 average price forecast to $5.95/lb; projects 2026 Chilean production at 5.27 million tons (-2.6% YoY).
On the radar
- US Tariff Decisions: Markets are closely watching for any finalization or changes to US tariffs on refined copper imports, which currently distort global trade flows and inventory distributions.
- Chilean Smelter Optimization: A new Cochilco study recommends optimizing existing smelter capacity (currently running at ~60%) before approving new expansions, which could impact future concentrate processing rates.
- ANZ Outlook: Analysts at ANZ suggest copper could rise further early next year as tariff concerns combine with resilient global demand and mine supply challenges.
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