Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-10-17
Copper prices retreated from recent highs amid profit-taking and easing supply fears, while aluminium faced pressure from equity sell-offs. Meanwhile, Chinese import premiums surged to near four-year highs as post-holiday demand returned, and analysts raised 2026 price forecasts despite lingering tariff uncertainties.
Copper and Base Metals: LME Daily — 2026-10-17
Top developments
Copper retreats on profit-taking and easing supply fears
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.2% to $14,314 a metric ton on October 15, hitting a 10-day low as investors engaged in profit-taking. The decline was attributed to a combination of a US inflation shock and a perceived easing of strike risks in Chile, which had previously supported prices. This correction follows a period of significant gains driven by supply concerns and strong demand signals from China
Chinese Yangshan premiums hit four-year highs
Post-holiday demand in China led to a surge in imported copper premiums at Yangshan, reaching near four-year highs. Warrant premiums averaged $132/mt, while Bill of Lading (B/L) premiums averaged $127/mt, reflecting tight immediate supply and increased market activity. This spike indicates robust physical demand from Chinese consumers, potentially supporting LME copper prices despite financial market volatility
Aluminium faces pressure from equity sell-offs
LME aluminium fell 0.9% to $2,961 a ton, its lowest level in more than nine months, while Shanghai aluminium dropped 1.3% to 23,040 yuan. The decline was linked to broader equity market sell-offs and fears over interest rate hikes, which dampened risk appetite for industrial metals. Zinc, nickel, and tin also declined on the LME, although lead edged higher
Analysts lift 2026 copper forecasts despite tariff limbo
Macquarie and other analysts have raised copper price forecasts for 2026, citing persistent supply constraints and strong demand from electrification and AI sectors. However, the market remains cautious due to the unresolved status of US tariffs, with a "collapse" scenario (if tariffs are ruled out) deemed less likely than a continuation of the current "limbo" past January 1. This uncertainty keeps 1.5 million tonnes of US copper stockpiled and out of the global market
Local view
Chile: Strike risks and production lows Local media in Chile highlight the ongoing tension at major mines. The strike at Centinela and a new tragedy at El Teniente continue to pressure copper prices, keeping them near historical highs despite global volatility. Analysts note that Chile's copper output is facing significant challenges, with production figures potentially hitting multi-year lows
China: Post-holiday demand surge Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reports indicate that Chinese buyers returned from the National Day holiday with strong purchasing intent, driving up Yangshan premiums. The "positive mood" among Chinese traders is seen as a key support for copper, offsetting some of the downward pressure from Western market concerns
Context & numbers
- LME Copper: ~$14,314/mt (Oct 15 close), down 1.2% on the day.
- LME Aluminium: ~$2,961/mt, near nine-month lows.
- Yangshan Premiums: $132/mt (warrants), $127/mt (B/L), near 4-year highs.
- US Stockpiles: Over 1 million tonnes of copper held in the US due to tariff uncertainty
- ICSG Forecast: The International Copper Study Group previously forecast a 150,000-tonne deficit for 2026, though recent refined copper surplus forecasts suggest a complex balance between mine supply constraints and refined output
On the radar
- LME Week 2026: Base metals are heading into LME Week with record-low treatment charges (TCs) and war-affected supply chains, which will be a major focus for industry stakeholders
- US Tariff Decision: The market is watching for any clarification on US copper tariffs, particularly around the January 1 deadline for potential changes. The current "limbo" state is keeping significant volumes out of the global market
- Chilean Mine Strikes: Ongoing negotiations and potential escalation at Escondida and other major Chilean mines remain a critical supply risk factor
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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