Crude Oil and OPEC+: Brent, WTI, Quotas Daily — 2026-09-26
Oil extended its losing streak to a sixth session this week as Washington and Tehran explored a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent to two-week lows near $99 and WTI below $91.50. Meanwhile, Russian Urals surged as high as $115 — briefly trading at a premium to Brent — amid Middle East conflict disruptions and fierce Asian refiner demand. OPEC+ quota decisions remain frozen, with October levels unchanged, while record diesel cracks and shrinking global inventories keep product markets critically tight.
Crude Oil and OPEC+: Brent, WTI, Quotas Daily — 2026-09-26
Top developments
US–Iran talks on phased Hormuz reopening drive sixth straight session of losses
Oil slipped for a sixth consecutive session as US and Iranian negotiators were said to be exploring a phased deal under which Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Donald Trump described US–Iran talks as "very fruitful." Oil steadied on September 24 as the negotiations progressed, but Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and disrupted export routes keep supply risk premia elevated. Any breakthrough would compress the Hormuz-related risk premium that has kept Brent elevated above $100 for weeks.
WTI falls below $91.50 on diplomatic optimization
WTI traded around $91.40 in early Asian hours on Thursday, September 24, tumbling on hopes of US–Iran diplomatic progress. The benchmark had already flirted with a two-week low near $88.50 on Wednesday, September 23, retaining a negative bias for a fifth straight day amid easing supply risks. Softer risk premiums, rather than changes in US fundamentals, are the primary driver of the WTI settlement decline this week.
Urals stuns the market: trades at premium to Brent, up to $115
In an extraordinary development, Russian Urals closed the week around $115/bbl — nearly $10 above Brent — after mid-September spikes to $107–110 and even $121 intraday. The Urals discount to Dated Brent in Baltic ports had collapsed to $20.85/bbl for the week of September 14–18, the narrowest since November 2025, driven by Indian and Chinese refinery demand and the Middle East conflict. Moscow's 2026 draft budget, however, assumes record-wide discounts on Russian oil — a striking mismatch with current physical market reality. This dynamic matters for sanctions enforcement: narrowing discounts signal buyers' willingness to pay more for Russian barrels despite embargoes.
Record diesel cracks and plummeting global inventories keep the market on edge
IEA data show global observed oil inventories have fallen 507 million barrels since the war began — an average draw of 2.8 mb/d — with August alone seeing a steep 95 mb (3.1 mb/d) decline, while the refining system is stretched. Record diesel prices are being driven by a global shortage of refining capacity and diesel supply rather than crude prices, keeping crack spreads at historic highs. Hedge funds have piled into fuels positions as Middle Eastern and Russian supply losses prove hard to replace and autumn refinery maintenance threatens further US fuel tightness.
Local view
Arabic-language media frames the week around the Iran deal track. Al Jazeera reports oil retreating as Washington and Tehran discuss a phased agreement to reopen Hormuz, while noting Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and export route disruption keep supply risks high. CNN Arabic highlighted the Tuesday drop to roughly two-week lows on reports of possible restored flows through Hormuz and resumption of Saudi exports via the Red Sea. Russia-focused watchers, per news.mondiara on September 23, note Urals doubled within a month to ~$99 before climbing further — the grade Russian oil-equity is tied to, not Brent.
Context & numbers
- Brent futures traded near $99/bbl on Wednesday (September 23) per Russian market reporting; the benchmark settled around $106 earlier in the week per business-magazine.online's Friday wrap.
- WTI traded ~$91.40 on September 24; two-week low near $88.50 hit on September 23.
- Urals: $115/bbl, up to ~$10 premium over Brent; Baltic discount narrowed to $20.85/bbl (week of Sep 14–18), minimum since Nov 2025.
- Global inventories: –507 mb since war start; August draw of 95 mb (3.1 mb/d).
- Europe's oil majors rose 40%–87% in 2026 on record diesel prices and margins.
On the radar
- Rumored phased US–Iran deal on Hormuz: watch for confirmation or breakdown — the single largest swing factor for Brent's risk premium in coming days.
- Q4 refinery maintenance season in the US could tighten already-low distillate inventories further, per hedging-flow reports.
- China 2026 oil and gas demand outlook has weakened materially, per BMI analysts — a bearish counterweight to supply-side fears.
- Whether Saudi pipeline workarounds hold through October, and whether OPEC+ adjusts its fixed October production levels at the next monthly meeting, remains the quota-side question to monitor.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Powered by
