Dollar and G10 FX: DXY, Euro, Sterling Daily — 2026-09-08

Top developments

DXY Stabilizes Near Key Technical Levels

On Tuesday, September 8, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recovered from early losses to trade marginally higher near 98.95, stabilizing below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 99.20. This movement reflects a market digesting recent robust US jobs data that initially boosted rate hike bets, pushing the index above 99.00 earlier in the week. Traders are now monitoring whether the DXY can sustain momentum above this technical hurdle or if broader bearish dollar views will reassert themselves

ING Analysis: Dollar Comeback Delayed, Not Derailed

ING analysts have shifted their stance to lean towards a September Fed hike, which has provided short-term support for the Greenback. However, their broader view remains bearish on the dollar over a longer horizon, suggesting that current strength is a delay rather than a reversal of the dollar's downtrend. This divergence between near-term hawkish Fed expectations and long-term structural weakness is creating volatility in major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD

EUR/USD Tests 200-Day Average Amid Oil Risks

The EUR/USD pair is currently testing its 200-day moving average, with risks tilted lower for the near term. Analysts note that while the euro has performed relatively well during recent oil price rises compared to earlier in the year, higher oil prices generally pose a risk to the eurozone economy. The pair's direction will likely be influenced by the ECB's policy stance and US inflation data later this week

GBP/USD Forecast Range Tightens Ahead of CPI

Sterling is trading within a forecast range of 1.3350 to 1.3650 for the week ending September 11. The pound's trajectory is heavily dependent on the US CPI data landing on Friday, which is the last major indicator before the Fed's policy decision. With the ECB expected to hike rates on Thursday, cross-currency dynamics are adding complexity to GBP/USD movements

Local view

Germany: German financial media reports that the Euro has remained stable against the US Dollar, hovering near 1.1623 during American trading hours on Tuesday. finanzen.net notes that the US Dollar struggled to hold earlier gains, allowing the Euro to recover from intraday lows. Meanwhile, it-boltwise.de highlights that the market is largely waiting for the ECB session, with LBBW analysts pricing in a 25 basis point hike

France: French outlets report mixed signals for Sterling. While some reports indicate Sterling progressing against a dollar weakened by Fed anticipation adjustments, others note it slipping as dollar uncertainty weighs on G10 currencies. Investing.com France highlights that the pound's movement is tightly coupled with shifts in US rate hike expectations

Context & numbers

Key Levels & Forecasts:

• DXY: Trading near 98.95 - 99.20. Key resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 99.20
• EUR/USD: Hovering near 1.1622 - 1.1624. The pair is testing the 200-day average, with BNP Paribas maintaining a 12-month target of 1.20 against the USD
• GBP/USD: Weekly forecast range 1.3350 - 1.3650

Central Bank Policy Stance:

• Fed: Markets are pricing in heightened odds of a September hike following strong jobs data. ING leans towards a hike, though broader views remain bearish on the dollar long-term
• ECB: Expected to hike rates on Thursday, September 10. A 25 basis point move is widely priced in by German analysts
• BoC & BoE: Leaning toward no change in September, contrasting with the RBNZ, ECB, and BoJ which are viewed as more likely to raise rates

On the radar

• US CPI Data: Scheduled for Friday, September 11. This is the critical pre-Fed decision data point that will determine if the "hike" narrative holds or if the dollar's recent strength fades
• ECB Decision: Thursday, September 10. Markets are watching for guidance on future rate paths, particularly given the divergence with the Fed's current hawkish tilt
• Oil Prices: Continued volatility in crude oil markets is cited as a key driver for EUR/USD, with higher prices generally weighing on the euro's outlook despite recent relative resilience