Dollar and G10 FX: DXY, Euro, Sterling Daily — 2026-09-14
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened above 99.00, driven by robust US jobs data and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. Meanwhile, the Euro retreated below the 1.1600 mark as the initial impulse from a hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike faded, with markets now pivoting to US inflation data. Sterling remains relatively stable despite solid UK GDP figures, as the Pound struggles to gain traction against a broadly firm Dollar.
Dollar and G10 FX: DXY, Euro, Sterling Daily — 2026-09-14
Top developments
Dollar Index (DXY) Surges on Jobs Data and Hike Bets
The US Dollar Index climbed back above the mid-99.00s, trading near 99.20 in early Asian hours on Monday, September 7, following robust US jobs data that boosted bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Traders are pricing in a 55% chance of a September Fed hike, viewing the greenback as a safe haven amid divergent global monetary policies. This strength has pressured EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with the dollar finding renewed support as risk to near-term forecasts tilts downside for major pairs.
Euro Retreats Below 1.1600 Post-ECB Decision
The Euro accelerated its reversal against the US Dollar on Friday, September 11, falling below the key 1.1600 support level as the market digested the ECB's recent hawkish rate hike. German media noted that while the Euro briefly touched 1.1647 earlier in the week, it gave up gains as focus shifted to upcoming US CPI data, which could further tighten Fed policy. The pair is now testing critical technical levels, with analysts warning that the path of least resistance is lower if US inflation remains sticky.
Sterling Stable Despite Solid UK GDP
The British Pound held steady against the Dollar despite the release of solid UK GDP data, as the currency faced headwinds from a generally stronger Greenback. While some earlier reports suggested the Pound might benefit from Bank of England (BoE) rate hike speculation, the immediate reaction was muted, with GBP/USD remaining range-bound. Local French commentary highlighted that the Pound's stability reflects a "wait-and-see" approach by investors ahead of clearer signals on Fed policy direction.
Local view
Germany: Financial outlet wallstreetONLINE reported that the Euro came under pressure after the ECB's rate hike, falling from a high of 1.1640 to lower levels as traders focused on the Fed's next move. finanzen.net similarly noted the Euro's slight decline against the Dollar following the ECB decision, emphasizing the divergence in monetary policy expectations between Frankfurt and Washington.
France: Investing.com French edition highlighted that the Pound remained stable despite strong UK GDP data, attributing the Dollar's strength to broader market anticipation of tighter Fed policy rather than specific UK economic outperformance.
Context & numbers
- Fed Policy Rate: 3.75% (Cutting cycle context, but hike bets rising for Sept)
- ECB Policy Rate: 2.25%
- BoE Policy Rate: 3.75%
- DXY Level: Trading near 99.20 - 99.75 range; testing 99.16 resistance
- EUR/USD: Fell below 1.1600; previous high ~1.1647
- Market Sentiment: 55% probability of a September Fed hike priced in
On the radar
- US CPI Data: The imminent release of US Consumer Price Index data is the primary catalyst for the week, expected to determine whether Fed hike bets solidify or fade, directly impacting DXY and EUR/USD direction.
- CFTC Positioning: Traders are watching the upcoming Commitments of Traders report for shifts in speculative net positions in Dollar and Euro futures, which often precede trend reversals.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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