Dollar and G10 FX: DXY, Euro, Sterling Daily — 2026-09-13

The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed the week near the 99.00 zone, holding ground after a brief wobble on Thursday's US inflation release. Markets are now pricing a roughly 55% chance of a September Fed hike, while the ECB has raised rates again, keeping the Euro steady against the Dollar. The Pound Sterling edged up slightly as UK growth data stole the spotlight from the US CPI report.

Fed Hike Bets Lift Dollar as ECB Tightening Supports Euro

Top developments

Fed Hike Bets Rise as CPI Takes Center Stage

Traders are increasingly betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike next week following the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which came in broadly in line with expectations but failed to dampen tightening fears. The DXY regained positive traction, testing the 99.16 resistance level and closing the week near 99.00. This shift in expectations has put pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with the dollar finding renewed support that tilts near-term forecasts to the downside for major pairs

1 sources

fxempire.com

fxempire.com

ECB Raises Rates Again, Euro Steadies Against Dollar

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its benchmark interest rates again, citing persistent inflation driven by energy costs and geopolitical conflicts. Despite the hawkish move, the Euro (EUR) remained largely stable against the US Dollar, trading around 1.1608–1.1640 range, as the market had already priced in the decision. The euro steadied after a volatile initial reaction to the US CPI report, which failed to trigger a strong directional move

Pound Sterling Shakes Off US CPI Jolt on UK Growth Data

The Pound Sterling (GBP) climbed slightly against the US Dollar, up 0.10% on Friday, as traders faded the initial reaction to the US CPI data. Attention shifted to UK growth figures, which provided a more supportive backdrop for the Sterling. While money markets increased odds of a Fed hike, the GBP/USD pair managed to shake off the dollar's strength, aided by domestic economic resilience

Local view

In German financial media, the focus remains on the ECB's decision and its impact on the Euro-Dollar exchange rate. Finanzen.at reported that the Euro gave slightly against the US Dollar as investors focused on the ECB's rate hike, while Finanzen.net noted the Euro's stability ahead of the decision, highlighting the tension between European inflation concerns and US data releases. In France, Investing.com observed that the Pound remained stable despite solid UK GDP data, even as the Dollar strengthened, reflecting a nuanced view of G10 dynamics where domestic growth can offset external currency pressures.

Context & numbers

The global rate cycle in 2026 is characterized by deep divergence. The Federal Reserve is currently at 3.75%, the ECB at 2.25%, and the Bank of England at 3.75%, all in a cutting or holding phase with recent hikes or pauses depending on specific data points. Conversely, the Bank of Japan (1.0%), RBA (4.35%), and RBNZ (2.5%) are hiking. Markets are pricing a ~55% chance of a September Fed hike, with the DXY hovering near 99.7–99.00 levels. The EUR/USD pair is trading in a narrow band around 1.1600–1.1640, while GBP/USD has shown resilience despite dollar strength.

On the radar

• Central Bank Triple-Header: Next week features meetings from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ, which are expected to drive significant volatility across G10 currencies.
• CFTC Positioning Data: The weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Fridays, will provide insight into speculative net positions in Dollar and Euro futures, potentially signaling shifts in market sentiment.