Dollar and G10 FX: DXY, Euro, Sterling Daily — 2026-10-08
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has stalled near its 18-month high of 102.50 as Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s comments on potential rate hikes failed to break resistance. While the Euro remains pinned near multi-year lows due to French fiscal concerns and a hawkish ECB outlook, Sterling found temporary relief against the Greenback following Waller’s dovish hints of an October pause.
Dollar and G10 FX: DXY, Euro, Sterling Daily — 2026-10-08
Top developments
DXY Resistance at 102.50 Despite Hawkish Fed Rhetoric
The Dollar Index (DXY) has repeatedly tested the 102.50 level on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday without breaking through, settling near 102.30 within a range held since October 1. Although Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for more rate hikes, he notably refused to put a date on them, which capped dollar upside despite elevated US Treasury yields. This stagnation is critical for G10 majors as traders await clearer signals on the timing of further tightening, with the euro's heavy weight in the index continuing to drag on DXY momentum even as other currencies weaken.
Euro Pinched by French Fiscal Woes and ECB Hawkishness
EUR/USD rebounded slightly during American trading hours on Thursday as US Treasury yields pulled back, but the currency remains pinned near a 17-month low touched earlier this week. The European Central Bank’s potential for further rate hikes remains uncertain; while some officials like Dolenc warn that new hikes might be needed to combat inflation, market consensus leans toward holding rates steady in October and hiking in December. This policy ambiguity, combined with persistent fiscal concerns in France, keeps the Euro vulnerable against the Dollar, with EUR/USD targeting recovery levels around 1.1161 only if US yields continue to retreat.
Sterling Catches a Bid on Waller’s Dovish Pivot
GBP/USD advanced approximately 0.14% on Thursday, trading at 1.3230 after bottoming at 1.3184, as the US Dollar weakened in response to Fed Governor Waller’s suggestion that a pause in hikes could occur in October. Despite positive US jobs data earlier in the week, this dovish nuance provided a brief respite for Sterling, which had been pressured by the broader dollar strength. However, the pair remains technically fragile, with FXEmpire noting that GBP/USD risks another test of 1.3180 if the Fed minutes reinforce year-end tightening expectations.
Local view
In Germany, financial media highlighted the ECB’s reference rate setting the Euro at 1.1186 USD on Thursday, up from 1.1177 on Wednesday, reflecting the slight intraday rebound driven by retreating US yields. German outlets noted that the Euro continues to struggle around the 1.12 threshold, with the "Euro under pressure" narrative dominating headlines due to the widening rate differential expectations between the ECB and the Fed.
In France, Les Echos and Boursorama focused heavily on ECB Governing Council member Dolenc’s comments that the ECB might be forced to raise rates further if inflation worsens, though the timing remains highly uncertain. Meanwhile, Investing.com France reported that Sterling’s decline was exacerbated by euro selling that supported the dollar, highlighting the interconnected weakness of G10 currencies against the Greenback.
Context & numbers
- DXY Level: The Dollar Index touched an 18-month high of 102.54 on October 5, 2026, and currently trades near 102.30.
- EUR/USD: The pair traded at 1.1186 (ECB reference) and saw intraday highs near 1.1267 on October 6 before pulling back.
- GBP/USD: Sterling traded at 1.3230 on Thursday after testing lows at 1.3184; key resistance lies above 1.3250.
- US Payrolls: Recent non-farm payrolls came in at just 29,000, yet the dollar remained firm due to hawkish Fed commentary and relative yield advantages.
- ECB Policy Expectations: Reuters polls suggest the ECB will hold its deposit rate at 2.50% in October but hike by 25 basis points in December due to inflation overshooting the 2% target.
On the radar
- Upcoming Economic Calendar: Key data from Germany, China, Australia, and the US are scheduled for the week of October 12–18, including the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting.
- CFTC Positioning Data: Traders are awaiting the next CFTC Commitments of Traders report (typically released Fridays) to gauge speculative net positions in Dollar and Euro futures, which have been building shorts in EUR and GBP.
- US CPI: Markets are looking toward upcoming CPI data to confirm whether inflation pressures justify the Fed’s hawkish stance or support Waller’s pause narrative.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Powered by
