Dollar and G10 FX: DXY, Euro, Sterling Daily — 2026-09-25
The dollar held near two-month highs after the DXY broke above 100, fueled by hawkish Fed expectations and a global bond sell-off that pushed 10-year Treasury yields toward 5.18%. EUR/USD stabilized around 1.1370 after a sharp slide, while the pound steadied on Friday as the greenback paused. Strong U.S. data reinforced the case for further Fed tightening, keeping EUR/USD and GBP/USD under pressure on widening rate differentials.
Dollar and G10 FX: DXY, Euro, Sterling Daily — 2026-09-25
Top developments
DXY tops 100 as Fed tightening bets lift greenback
The dollar index rose above the 100 mark to two-month highs, driven by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Both the euro and sterling slid against the greenback as the rate-differential story dominated G10 FX trading. The move followed a unanimous Fed hike with stronger economic projections and a more hawkish dot plot, giving markets little reason to unwind aggressive tightening expectations.
Strong U.S. data extends dollar strength; euro holds July lows
Fresh strong U.S. data and hawkish Fed expectations supported DXY as EUR/USD and GBP/USD remained pressured below key technical resistance. The euro held near its July low, with German-language coverage attributing the calm to Fed rate expectations, elevated oil prices keeping inflation expectations alive, and a lack of fresh European data impulses. RoboForex's daily technical picture for 25 September keeps EUR/USD and GBP/USD in focus among its key G10 pairs.
Bond sell-off powers dollar; Treasury yields approach 5.18%
A global bond sell-off pushed the U.S. 10-year yield to 5.18% and pressured the euro down to 1.1370, with the dollar heading for a second straight weekly gain. FXStreet notes the dollar is strengthening as Treasury yields approach levels not seen in almost two decades, while oil adds to inflation concerns — and cautions that rallying markets may be losing in the process.
Sterling steadies after days of dollar-driven losses
The pound steadied on Friday as the dollar paused, with sterling recovering slightly after retreating mid-week against dollar resilience built on hawkish Fed bets. Japanese FX desks flagged sterling may fall against the euro, with the divergence between Bank of England and ECB monetary policy as the backdrop — a rare spot where the euro could find a friend.
Local view
- Germany: finanzen.net reports the euro was little changed Thursday, holding at its July low against the dollar. finanzen.ch described a quiet week-end close on Friday with the euro "somewhat firmer" among the major pairs. it-boltwise.de pegged the euro near 1.1370 USD after the ECB set its reference rate at 1.1367, citing Fed rate expectations and higher oil prices as drivers.
- Austria: finanzen.at (dpa-AFX) reported the euro largely held its ground in U.S. trading Thursday, last quoted at 1.1370 USD.
- France: Zonebourse reported the dollar rising on expectations of another U.S. rate hike before year-end. BFM Bourse's research team framed the single currency as in a "precarious equilibrium".
- Japan: Nikkei reported from London that the euro fell against the dollar as dollar-buying dominated on U.S. rate-hike expectations. Fisco's outlook flagged that even with additional U.S. rate-hike expectations, markets remain wary of possible currency intervention on the yen side.
- Switzerland: UBS sees room for EUR/CHF to rise above 0.94 by year-end.
Context & numbers
- DXY: broke above 100 to two-month highs during the week; key target level cited at 100.53.
- EUR/USD: near 1.1436 on 23 September before easing; trading near 1.1370 into Friday, with the ECB reference rate set at 1.1367.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 5.18% as the dollar aims for a second consecutive weekly gain; levels not seen in nearly two decades per FXStreet.
- Oil: dropped below $90 during the dollar's climb.
- The Fed's latest decision featured a unanimous hike, upgraded economic projections and a more hawkish dot plot.
On the radar
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: the next futures-only report, due Friday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern with data as of Tuesday, will show whether specs added to dollar-long exposure during the latest leg higher.
- The Fed Chair's press-conference commentary is beingParsed closely by traders as the main channel for what the Fed will do next rather than what it did.
- Oil prices remain a live input to the inflation/rates picture for majors like CAD, with crude dipping below $90 this week.
- Markets are watching Tokyo for any yen-intervention rhetoric as additional Fed hike expectations press USD/JPY higher.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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