Dollar and G10 FX: DXY, Euro, Sterling Daily — 2026-09-15

Top developments

Dollar Index Jumps on Fed Hike Expectations and Safe-Haven Flows

The US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped 0.5% on Monday, September 14, reaching a two-week high near 99.46. This surge was primarily driven by safe-haven buying following fresh turbulence in the AI sector, coupled with growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement a quarter-point rate increase at its upcoming meeting. Financial markets have assigned nearly an 87% probability to a 25 basis point move by the Fed, significantly boosting the dollar against major peers like the Swiss Franc and the Euro.

Euro Breaks Below Key Moving Averages Amid Hawkish Fed Pricing

The EUR/USD pair declined to near 1.1585 during the early Asian session on Monday, extending losses as aggressive Federal Reserve rate-hike bets intensified following hotter US inflation reports. By the close of Monday's session, the pair closed near 1.1550, down 0.42%, and fell below both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for the first time since late July. This technical breakdown suggests a potential shift in momentum, with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs now converging within two pips, indicating a critical juncture for the single currency.

Sterling Tests Two-Month Lows as US Yields Rise

The British Pound (GBP/USD) tested two-month lows of 1.3464 on Monday, September 14, before trimming some earlier losses to end down 0.23%. The currency is under pressure as rising US yields put the Federal Reserve in command of global rate expectations, overshadowing domestic UK economic data. The pair dropped to the lower end of its monthly range, near the 1.3480 region, during the European session, reflecting heavy selling pressure ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy decision scheduled for September 17.

Local view

German financial outlet finanzen.net reported that the Euro noticeably weakened against the Dollar on Monday as markets positioned themselves ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision. The report highlighted that despite a slight easing in the oil market later in the day, the downward trend for the Euro persisted due to the dominant narrative of US monetary tightening. French outlet CDT Comptoir des Tuileries noted that the week starting September 14 is particularly delicate for the Euro, as traders must arbitrate between three diverging monetary policies from the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the ECB.

Context & numbers

• Fed Rate Probability: Markets assign nearly 87% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting.
• EUR/USD Levels: The pair closed near 1.1550 on Monday, breaking below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs.
• GBP/USD Levels: Sterling tested lows at 1.3464, a two-month low, before recovering slightly to trade around 1.3480.
• DXY Level: The Dollar Index traded 0.37% higher to near 99.46 during European trading on Monday.

On the radar

• Federal Reserve Decision: Scheduled for Wednesday, September 16, with a high probability of a rate hike already priced in.
• Bank of England Decision: Scheduled for Thursday, September 17, with UK inflation data released the morning before the decision.
• Bank of Japan Decision: Also scheduled for this week, adding another layer of complexity to G10 rate differentials, particularly for USD/JPY and cross-currency pairs.
• CFTC Positioning Data: The weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Fridays, will provide insight into speculative positioning following Monday's sharp moves.