Earnings Season Global: Beats, Misses and Guidance — 2026-10-12
Samsung Electronics shattered records with a projected $80 billion Q3 operating profit, driven by an AI chip boom that lifted TSMC sales but triggered a pullback in US semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Q3 earnings season officially kicked off with expectations for a 29.6% blended earnings growth rate, while European blue chips like DHL raised guidance and HCLTech boosted its FY27 outlook.
Earnings Season Global: Beats, Misses and Guidance — 2026-10-12
Top developments
Samsung posts historic $80B quarterly profit forecast
On October 8, Samsung Electronics announced preliminary earnings guidance for the third quarter of 2026, projecting an operating profit of 107.4 trillion won (approximately $80.2 billion). This represents a nearly ninefold (783%) year-over-year increase and marks the first time any technology company has surpassed 100 trillion won in quarterly operating profit. The surge is attributed to sustained AI-driven demand for memory chips, which has allowed Samsung to maintain high margins despite softer demand in consumer electronics.
US Semiconductor stocks dip on "peak profit" fears
Despite Samsung’s record-breaking guidance, shares of US-based chipmakers Micron (MU) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) declined in overnight trading following the announcement. Investors interpreted the massive beat as a potential sign that the current cycle of AI chip demand may have peaked, raising the bar for future quarters. This reaction highlights a divergence where strong results from Asian exporters are being viewed with caution by US markets already priced for perfection.
HCLTech raises FY27 guidance on record bookings
Indian IT major HCLTech reported strong Q2 FY26 results on October 12, beating profit estimates and raising its full-year fiscal 2027 revenue growth guidance to 2.5–4%. The company reported new deal bookings of $3.258 billion in the September quarter, up 27% year-over-year, with first-half bookings reaching a record high. This upward revision signals robust demand for digital transformation services among global enterprises, supporting the broader tech sector's resilience.
PepsiCo beats estimates on international strength
PepsiCo reported Q3 2026 earnings and revenues that beat Wall Street estimates, driven by robust international growth and pricing gains. While North American pressures persist, the company’s ability to deliver beats underscores the importance of geographic diversification for consumer staples during this earnings season. These results provide early support for the broader market’s expectation of steady profitability across non-tech sectors.
DHL raises guidance and announces buybacks
German logistics giant DHL (Deutsche Post) raised its financial forecasts for the second time in recent weeks, citing stronger-than-expected profits. The company also announced share buyback programs and highlighted a 3.3% dividend yield, positioning itself as a key performer in the DAX index. Local German media noted that these upgrades are driving new "course fantasy" (upside potential) for investors heading into the year-end rally.
Local view
Japan: Local financial media is closely monitoring the start of the Japanese earnings season, with Kabutan highlighting specific stocks showing high progress rates in the first quarter that may lead to upward revisions in full-year forecasts. Analysts are focusing on companies like Tosei (8923), which recently revised its full-year net income forecast upward by 5% and increased dividends by 3 yen, signaling confidence in domestic economic stability.
Germany: wallstreetONLINE reports that the DAX started the week positively, driven by strong order growth at wind turbine maker Nordex and positive delivery figures from Volkswagen. However, Finanztrends notes that weak German exports remain a headwind, with the index struggling to break through technical resistance levels despite the positive earnings news from individual blue chips.
Context & numbers
- S&P 500 Growth Expectation: The estimated blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q3 2026 remains unchanged at 29.6%, according to FactSet data.
- DAX Performance: The DAX index dipped below the 25,000-point mark earlier in the week due to broader export concerns but recovered slightly on Monday, October 12, supported by corporate news.
- TSMC Revenue Surge: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company saw quarterly revenue surge by 51% year-over-year, aligning with the broader AI chip boom narrative.
On the radar
- TSMC Full Results: TSMC is expected to report full third-quarter results shortly, with analysts predicting a sixth consecutive record quarter and net income up 65% on AI demand. This release will be critical for confirming whether the "peak AI" fears triggered by Samsung's guidance are overblown.
- US Big Bank Kickoff: The US earnings season is ramping up, with major banks and financial institutions like Interactive Brokers (IBKR) scheduled to report soon. Investors are watching for insights into trading volumes and margin lending trends.
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