Earnings Season Global: Beats, Misses and Guidance — 2026-10-17

Top developments

TSMC Posts Sixth Straight Record Profit, But Shares Slip Amid AI Sell-Off

On October 15, TSMC reported a 68.7% year-over-year rise in net income and a 50.9% increase in revenue for Q3 2026, marking its sixth consecutive quarterly record. Despite beating estimates and guiding for fourth-quarter revenue growth of up to 61%, shares fell as investors reacted to a broader sector-wide sell-off in AI-related stocks and cautious commentary on 2027 demand. The company raised its full-year 2026 growth outlook to approximately 44%.

Morgan Stanley Beats Estimates on Equities Trading Strength

Morgan Stanley topped expectations for Q3 2026, driven by equities trading revenue that beat consensus by $909 million. The strong performance in capital markets offset softer results in other banking divisions, contributing to a robust start for the US big bank earnings season.

Johnson & Johnson Raises 2026 Guidance After Q3 Beat

Johnson & Johnson exceeded analyst expectations for Q3 2026, beating earnings estimates by $0.06 per share and topping revenue forecasts. Following the results, the healthcare giant raised its full-year 2026 guidance, signaling confidence in its pharmaceutical and medtech divisions.

DHL Group Lifts Full-Year EBIT Outlook

On October 16, DHL Group announced it would raise its 2026 EBIT guidance to over €7 billion, up from the previous target of over €6.5 billion. The revision was driven by strong performance in the third quarter, particularly in the DHL Express division, which boosted both revenue and profitability.

Charles Schwab Posts Record Results but Shares Fall

Charles Schwab reported record Q3 2026 results on October 14, but shares declined as investors focused on higher interest expense and future rate headwinds. The disconnect between strong operational results and negative share performance highlights the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic factors during this earnings cycle.

Local view

Japan: Upward Revisions Gain Momentum Local Japanese media reported a surge in companies raising their full-year forecasts. Kabutan highlighted 40 candidate stocks for potential upward revisions for the December 2026 fiscal year, noting that investors are "front-running" these announcements. Specific updates included Opro raising its operating profit forecast to ¥469 million from ¥418 million, and OSG Corp increasing its target to ¥36 billion from ¥30 billion.

Germany: DAX Resilient Despite Tech Volatility German market reports indicated that the DAX index remained relatively insulated from the global tech sell-off, hovering around 25,000 points. Tagesschau noted that the index's composition, which lacks major tech giants, helped buffer against the sharp declines seen in US and Asian tech sectors.

Context & numbers

S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard As of October 16, FactSet data showed that 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beat revenue estimates, above the 5-year average of 70%. The blended revenue growth rate for Q3 2026 is currently 12.6%, an increase from 12.4% the previous week.

Market Reaction The Nasdaq slid 2% on Friday, October 15, posting its worst week since June, pressured by an AI trade sell-off and rising oil prices. This volatility contrasts with the strong fundamental results reported by companies like TSMC and Morgan Stanley.

On the radar

• Big Bank Results: The earnings season for other major US banks continues this week, with investors watching for clarity on net interest income trends.
• AI Sector Volatility: The recent sell-off in AI stocks, despite strong earnings from leaders like TSMC, suggests a potential rotation or profit-taking phase that could impact upcoming tech earnings reports.
• Japanese Fiscal Year-End: With December fiscal year-end approaching, watch for further upward revisions in Japanese corporate guidance, particularly in export-oriented sectors.