Earnings Season Global: Beats, Misses and Guidance — 2026-09-12

Top developments

Siemens Raises Guidance on Strong Q3 Performance

Siemens reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, with revenue and earnings per share (EPS) exceeding consensus estimates. The German industrial giant raised its 2027 outlook, citing increased order intake and improved margins, which drove the stock higher in the DAX. This performance underscores the resilience of European industrial blue chips amid global macro uncertainties.

Dover Corp. Trims Outlook Despite Strong Q2 Beat

Dover Corp. delivered solid second-quarter 2026 results, reporting $2.19 billion in revenue and $2.31 EPS, surpassing expectations. Despite the beat, the company trimmed its forward guidance, leading to a mixed reaction from investors. This highlights the ongoing tension between current profitability and cautious future outlooks among US industrial firms.

TSMC Posts Record Monthly Revenue Driven by AI Demand

TSMC’s August revenue jumped 53.3% year-over-year to a record NT$514.8 billion, marking the second consecutive month of record highs. This surge reflects intense demand for advanced semiconductor nodes used in AI infrastructure. The data serves as a key leading indicator for the broader tech sector's health and upcoming quarterly reports from major chip consumers.

Korean Won Rally Threatens Exporter Margins

The sharp appreciation of the Korean won against the dollar is clouding earnings outlooks for major South Korean exporters, including Hyundai and Samsung. The average exchange rate for Q3 is estimated at 1,415 won per dollar, squeezing profit margins for automakers and chipmakers who rely heavily on overseas sales. This currency headwind may lead to guidance cuts or margin pressure in upcoming Q3 reports.

Local view

Germany: Local financial media highlight Siemens' continued strength in the DAX, noting that despite the raised guidance for 2027, the 2026 guidance remains tight. Analysts are watching closely to see if this industrial strength can offset softer signals from other European sectors.

Japan: NOMURA Wealth Style reports that Japanese companies are increasingly revising shareholder return forecasts upward. For fiscal year 2026, total dividends are projected at ¥31.6 trillion (+20.3% YoY), while share buybacks are expected to reach ¥24.0 trillion (+27.3% YoY). This trend indicates strong corporate confidence and a shift toward more aggressive capital return policies.

Context & numbers

• S&P 500 Beat Rate: With 99% of companies having reported actual results for Q2 2026, 87% of S&P 500 firms beat EPS estimates. This is significantly above historical averages, indicating widespread corporate outperformance.
• Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 stands at 19.5, which is below the 5-year average, suggesting that earnings growth has outpaced price appreciation recently.
• TSMC Revenue: August revenue of NT$514.8 billion (+53.3% YoY) sets a new benchmark for monthly sales, underscoring the AI boom's tangible impact on top-line growth for suppliers.

On the radar

• Korean Q3 Earnings: Watch for upcoming Q3 results from major Korean exporters like Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor. The strong won is expected to be a key topic on earnings calls, with potential downward revisions to operating profit forecasts.
• European Industrial Guidance: Following Siemens' raise, attention shifts to other DAX industrials like Bosch and SAP (if reporting) to see if the trend of raising 2027 outlooks while keeping 2026 tight continues.