European Power and Carbon: EUA, Day-Ahead Prices — 2026-09-10

Top developments

German Prices Hit Low Amid Wind Surge, Diverging from France

German day-ahead power prices fell to €42/MWh on September 4, the lowest level since June, driven by a significant peak in wind output. This drop created an unusual price gap with neighboring France, where supply constraints kept prices elevated. The divergence highlights the growing volatility in the German-French interconnector flows and the impact of renewable intermittency on regional arbitrage opportunities.

French Wholesale Prices Spike to Three-Year High

In contrast to Germany, French wholesale electricity prices climbed to €130.74/MWh, marking a near three-year high. This surge was attributed to a combination of heatwaves increasing cooling demand, drought conditions reducing hydropower availability, and unplanned outages at EDF nuclear reactors. The spike underscores the fragility of the French supply mix during late-summer weather extremes and its knock-on effect on European grid stability.

Polish Energy Costs Surge to Highest Since 2023

Polish wholesale electricity prices for next-year delivery rose by 76 PLN/MWh in a single month to nearly 500 PLN/MWh, the highest level since 2023. This increase is linked to rising gas and coal costs and regulatory decisions by the URE (Energy Regulatory Office). Analysts warn that these wholesale trends could lead to household bill increases of up to 800 PLN annually, posing political challenges ahead of elections.

EU ETS Carbon Prices Stabilize Near €82.50/t

EU ETS allowance (EUA) prices eased slightly to approximately €82.48–€82.50 per tonne of CO2 in late August/early September, following a six-month high earlier in the summer. While this represents a minor correction, the price remains robust compared to previous years, reflecting continued demand for compliance and tighter supply expectations. Market participants are watching for further policy signals from Brussels that could influence future supply levels.

Local view

Germany: Local media reports indicate that while spot prices are low, retail contracts remain stable due to hedging strategies. However, the extreme divergence between spot and futures markets is causing confusion among dynamic tariff users. NDR notes that the Iran conflict's direct impact on domestic contracts remains limited so far, but volatility is expected to persist.

France: French stakeholders are concerned about the "perfect storm" of heat, nuclear maintenance, and low hydro. Optima Énergie highlights that the €130.74/MWh level is unsustainable for long-term industrial planning and may force more companies to seek long-term fixed-price contracts or on-site generation solutions to hedge against such spikes.

Poland: The Polish press is heavily focused on the consumer impact. Farmer.pl and Rzeczpospolita report that the "cost spiral" is hitting rural households hardest, with experts predicting that the current TGE (Polish Power Exchange) prices will inevitably pass through to retail bills in 2027. There is growing political pressure on the government to intervene with subsidies or price caps.

Context & numbers

• German Day-Ahead: €42/MWh (Lowest since June).
• French Day-Ahead: €130.74/MWh (Near 3-year high).
• Polish Next-Year Power: ~500 PLN/MWh (Highest since 2023).
• Polish August Spot Average: 583.66 PLN/MWh.
• UK Day-Ahead (Sep 3): 114.14 GBP/MWh.
• UK Gas (NBP Sep 3): 180.60 p/therm.
• EUA Price: ~€82.50/t.

On the radar

• French Nuclear Restart: Monitoring EDF's schedule for bringing offline reactors back online, which could alleviate the current price spike in France.
• Polish Election Impact: Watch for any pre-election announcements regarding energy subsidies or price caps in Poland, given the sensitive timing of the price surge.
• Winter Gas Storage: With European storage filling rates varying, attention will shift to winter futures spreads (TTF) as autumn approaches, potentially influencing power prices via the gas-power link.